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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0884

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, May 23, 2022 19:46:59
    ACUS11 KWNS 231946
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 231946=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-232145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0884
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0246 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of the southern High Plains

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 231946Z - 232145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe weather threat will increase through the
    afternoon and into the evening across portions of the southern High
    Plains.

    DISCUSSION...The boundary layer has started to warm across the
    southern High Plains in the wake of morning mid-level cloud cover.
    In addition, southerly/southeasterly low-level flow has increased
    dewpoints into the low to mid 50s. Continued heating and low-level
    moisture advection will continue destabilization across the warm
    sector and erode inhibition which should allow storms to develop
    along the dryline in the next 1 to 2 hours as a mid-level shortwave
    trough approaches the southern High Plains.=20

    The MAF VWP shows very weak flow through the troposphere which can
    explain the lack of organization with the ongoing storms northeast
    of Midland. However, farther north/northwest, strong mid-level flow
    (45 knots per FDX/AMA VWP) is present which should aid in storm
    organization. Supercells are possible with primary threats of large
    hail and severe wind initially while storms remain semi-discrete.
    However, storms are expected to congeal into clusters/lines by
    mid-late evening with severe wind as the primary threat.

    ..Bentley/Hart.. 05/23/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-KQCd-PARatRscJ7g8XuB6G97-3ZWrNp0Fa7tnow3eu_pe_K5QAUCLU3sF9hfrGSckVwg-Ka5= OrtQfZjig5fdyS4fSI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 32230472 33740406 35290316 36050300 36590285 36570178
    35590146 34060107 33050061 32220053 31600158 31600238
    31730387 32230472=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, May 27, 2023 20:26:59
    ACUS11 KWNS 272026
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 272026=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-272230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0884
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0326 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023

    Areas affected...Far southeastern New Mexico and southwest TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 272026Z - 272230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms will increase in coverage into the evening hours,
    with the potential for strong/severe gusts and perhaps isolated
    large hail. A watch is being issued shortly.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is gradually increasing in the
    vicinity of a north-south-oriented dryline/lee trough in far
    southwest TX this afternoon -- where a plume of steep midlevel lapse
    rates is evident. During the next few hours, continued diurnal
    heating and mesoscale ascent along the dryline should favor an
    uptick in storm coverage into the evening hours. Regional VWP
    indicates 30-40 kt of midlevel southwesterly flow atop moist east-southeasterlies (middle/upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints) --
    supportive of organized storms given continued diurnal
    destabilization (decreasing CINH) east of the dryline.=20=20

    Initial storms closer to the dryline may remain somewhat separated
    and pose a risk of isolated large hail; however, the steep lapse
    rate environment and expected increase in storm coverage should
    primarily result in a risk of strong/severe outflow winds owing to
    upscale growth with eastward extent this afternoon/evening. A watch
    will be issued shortly.

    ..Weinman/Hart.. 05/27/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8trOPF0wdwYZX7F21oopJkElwi9ehkDplxrjwAfRbrbaJsrBBREI8Sn9T9hgagWwNNfKvFah9= 1vwq5-61BFSW6rMNZM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MAF...EPZ...

    LAT...LON 30480497 31220489 32130473 32410453 32570420 32600376
    32510330 32300307 31940282 31440265 30740256 30030254
    29350271 28940308 28970347 29260408 29640458 30480497=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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