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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0877

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, May 22, 2022 22:33:24
    ACUS11 KWNS 222233
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 222232=20
    NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-230030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0877
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0532 PM CDT Sun May 22 2022

    Areas affected...Northern Virginia...eastern
    Maryland...Delaware...and New Jersey

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261...

    Valid 222232Z - 230030Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Lines of thunderstorms across northern Virginia and
    eastern Pennsylvania/New Jersey will continue to pose a threat for
    sporadic damaging winds as they move east towards the Mid-Atlantic
    coast over the next couple of hours.

    DISCUSSION...Broken clusters of thunderstorms have consolidated into
    more organized lines over northern VA, eastern MD, and eastern PA
    with several wind damage reports noted over the past hour. MRMS
    vertically integrated ice, lightning counts, and GOES IR imagery
    have all shown a drop off in convective intensity over the past
    20-30 minutes with the northern line moving out of PA, which
    suggests that the propensity for this convection to produce
    widespread wind damage may be waning to a degree in the near-term.
    Nonetheless, mostly clear skies ahead of both lines have maintained
    surface temperatures in the 80s and steep low-level lapse rates near
    8 C/km. Furthermore, the thermodynamic environment across the
    Mid-Atlantic region remains supportive of convective maintenance
    with 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and little inhibition. Consequently,
    maintenance of the northern VA line appears probable, and a
    re-intensification is possible of the line moving into NJ, both of
    which will pose a threat for at least sporadic damaging winds as
    they approach the coast over the coming hours.

    ..Moore.. 05/22/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!__G4nlBZsf4_AQh6OMy9Ej_lw8sDLxJjU7WzykWcFhFWzGWmcUxV16VhnCAB8NLJjs3rZ6O96= o2U6nBefOZGUmP6rok$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

    LAT...LON 39167675 39787601 40167561 40587512 40547453 40417398
    39857406 39257445 38877489 38587501 38347539 37987627
    37767691 37717755 37867804 38357799 38897720 39167675=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, May 26, 2023 23:03:51
    ACUS11 KWNS 262303
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 262303=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-270200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0877
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0603 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023

    Areas affected...eastern New Mexico into west Texas

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 241...

    Valid 262303Z - 270200Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 241 continues.

    SUMMARY...Corridors of severe potential are forecast to develop
    through this evening. Damaging hail and wind, as well as a couple
    tornadoes will be possible.

    DISCUSSION...As of 23Z, several widely spaced areas of storms
    extended from east-central NM southward toward the Davis Mtns, with
    large hail the primary threat. While these storms are relatively far
    apart, visible imagery and surface analysis show a wide area of
    potential with a moist, unstable air mass in place.=20

    A notable supercell over eastern Torrance County, NM will likely
    remain severe as it moves east/southeast this evening. MLCAPE is
    over 2000 J/kg in this area, with instability evidenced by towering
    cumulus downstream. Damaging hail will remain likely, with
    wind-driven hail possible if the storm grows/intensifies this
    evening.

    Other cells are attempting to develop into Eddy County NM, with a
    substantial cumulus field noted, extending northwestward from
    Roswell westward to the Sacramentos. Any cells that develop in this
    region will have a very favorable environment for severe hail and
    wind as they proceed east/southeast toward the Midland TX area.
    Southeasterly low-level winds will maximize storm relative inflow
    aiding storm longevity. Low-level shear will also be sufficient for
    a couple tornadoes, especially for deviant/rightward motion off the
    hodograph.

    ..Jewell.. 05/26/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8Tw7SUrPqf_X-p5xfUwj8TBuYEGzpkkACmH7v8ViC_q9Iw40hTWG2F_3eJMKjYhKW31fVk01p= DnueOx2TGiBMiya6Js$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

    LAT...LON 29990327 30270410 30720443 32140527 32760539 33340557
    34050569 34320565 34530552 34790529 34940499 35000443
    34960395 34630332 34080278 33440231 32880208 32330188
    31440172 30730162 30310179 30000216 29990327=20


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