ACUS11 KWNS 212030
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212030=20
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-212200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0858
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

Areas affected...Portions of eastern IN...northern KY...much of
OH...western PA...and the far northern WV Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 254...255...

Valid 212030Z - 212200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 254, 255
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered severe/damaging winds and isolated large hail
will continue to be possible with multiple clusters of thunderstorms
this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...The bowing cluster across southeastern IN has recently
shown strong outbound velocities from the KIND radar, and multiple
measured severe wind gusts of 58 and 67 mph respectively. Additional
clusters of thunderstorms are present across western into central
OH. All of this activity will continue to pose a threat for
severe/damaging winds, as moderate to strong instability is present
where convection is ongoing. Isolated large hail will also be
possible with the strongest embedded cores. Current expectations are
for this activity to spread generally east-northeastward across
northern KY, much of OH, and eventually western PA over the next
couple of hours. 0-1 km SRH is limited (around 50-100 m2/s2) owing
to the weak low-level flow, but a brief tornado may still be
possible with circulations embedded within the clusters.

..Gleason.. 05/21/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7wztKtdSdkBvwFz3ikRXW1zp9Z-oXE1NcGaYsLR3c6lQ8yT2nGIgluQPC9u-YPRaPmjGHV_K9= 8NdItvEMfVNpHcrE3Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON 37968670 38388623 38978594 39688603 41118390 42247985
40697974 38578275 38128402 37908509 37968670=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS11 KWNS 242243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242243=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-250045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0858
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0543 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023

Areas affected...northeastern New Mexico and western Oklahoma and
Texas Panhandles

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 235...

Valid 242243Z - 250045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 235
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat continues within WW235. Large hail and gusty
winds continue to be the main hazards with ongoing storms.

DISCUSSION...Storm development has been ongoing across portions of
northeastern New Mexico into southern Colorado. Storms are mixed
mode with semi-discrete and clustered supercells ongoing. Mode
within this region will likely be dictated by boundary interactions
and storm mergers, as thunderstorms continue to develop and move
toward the Texas border through the evening. The axis of most
favorable instability and deep-layer shear remains across the
Texas/New Mexico border. Storms may become more organized as they
move within this regime, with large hail and gusty winds as the main
concern in the near term.=20

CAM guidance consensus suggests a broken line may develop toward the
evening, with embedded supercell structures. Around 02-03z, a
low-level jet will develop across southwestern Texas into the Texas
Panhandle. The increase in surface flow will lead to more curved
low-level hodograph shape and increasing potential for a tornado or
two, if storm mode can maintain embedded supercell circulations.
Should more upscale growth occur, the main threat may shift to
damaging winds.

..Thornton/Edwards.. 05/24/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5vjeaUHH5PKVI5A9nB5fd_fxLbX-MbcTD0VjRCeYF-87sKltOmaMFZVn8ywlkV-MTEXeywnvb= LLSBs0LiOT1mLYSg_E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36990396 36980361 36980316 36850264 36650248 36490240
36300228 35960224 35720222 35480226 35280231 35140242
35030265 34970292 34960328 35000357 35080380 35210466
35290505 35670506 35870501 36210477 36750412 36990396=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)