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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0856

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, May 21, 2022 19:35:16
    ACUS11 KWNS 211935
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 211934=20
    NCZ000-SCZ000-212200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0856
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0234 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of far north-central SC into central NC

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 211934Z - 212200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Loosely organized thunderstorms may pose an isolated
    threat for damaging winds and hail as they spread into North
    Carolina this afternoon. Watch issuance is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...A subtle mid-level shortwave trough evident in water
    vapor satellite imagery over SC has aided in the development of
    scattered convection across northern SC this afternoon. These
    thunderstorms have begun to interact with each other and form into a
    small cluster across far northern SC and southern NC. The airmass
    across central NC downstream from this activity is moderately to
    strongly unstable, with MLCAPE around 2500-3000 J/kg. Although
    low-level flow remains weak, modest enhancement to the mid-level
    southerly winds is present owing to the low-amplitude shortwave
    trough. Isolated damaging winds should be the main threat as
    thunderstorms spread northward into central NC over the next few
    hours. Some marginally severe hail may also occur with the strongest
    cores even though deep-layer shear remains weak. The overall threat
    should remain isolated enough that watch issuance appears unlikely
    at this time.

    ..Gleason/Hart.. 05/21/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8xoPAr3xWHMRQm-ZrZjHuYgu5DPyTR7PY8ROVatjjOddFVu-ep_x5MMGFqYTz3mzuyuWIigOO= 9-BybmF_hFN9Hxz_is$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

    LAT...LON 35198103 35798085 36308032 36487955 36457858 35997806
    35347807 35007836 34807876 34607959 34458033 34618070
    35198103=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, May 24, 2023 20:47:36
    ACUS11 KWNS 242047
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 242047=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-242215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0856
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0347 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023

    Areas affected...portions of southwest Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 242047Z - 242215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms may evolve with a risk for
    wind and hail. It is uncertain if a weather watch is needed.

    DISCUSSION...Across portions of southwest TX, afternoon satellite
    imagery showed thunderstorms developing across the Davis Mountains
    and Trans Pecos region of southwest TX. Warm surface temperatures at
    the nose of a plume of steeper low and mid-level lapse rates were
    supporting moderate buoyancy with 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE present.
    Vertical shear of 35-40 kt is sufficient for storm organization into
    supercells capable of large to very large hail and perhaps isolated
    severe wind gusts. Storm coverage remains somewhat uncertain owing
    to very weak forcing for ascent. Some model guidance hints that
    additional storms may develop along the dryline and spread
    east/southeast late this afternoon/evening. Should this occur, a
    locally greater severe threat may materialize necessitating a
    Weather Watch.

    ..Lyons/Grams.. 05/24/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!547I-lDJTiy4NQPxJ54i7XJUCwrveQ_Z_urWaPhoF-N1ka_hCtPCipyHKT-S0dd5FcnKRov2P= BgPfmOtBlvXc3tHhtc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 31860475 32220446 32330376 32080302 31750249 31430221
    30620208 30290202 29740219 29530261 28820317 28850375
    29520395 30200420 30660445 31090460 31860475=20


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