ACUS11 KWNS 211848
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211847=20
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-212045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0854
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

Areas affected...Portions of northern/western ME into northern
NH/VT/NY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 211847Z - 212045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a
tornado or two should increase this afternoon. Watch issuance is
likely.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived and compact bowing cluster with a history
of producing severe/damaging winds has persisted across southern
Ontario this afternoon. On its current track, this cluster may
impact parts of far northern NY in the next couple of hours. If this
convection can maintain its intensity, it would remain capable of
producing mainly severe/damaging winds. Other, more cellular
thunderstorms have recently developed over southern Quebec. This
activity will approach northern New England later this afternoon.
The environment across northern NY appears quite favorable for
severe thunderstorms, with MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg and deep layer
shear around 35-40 kt. The rich low-level moisture gradually becomes
pinched off into northern NH and western/northern ME. Still, strong
diurnal heating is occurring across this area per recent visible
satellite imagery, and enough instability should be in place to
support surface-based storms in the next couple of hours. In
addition, effective bulk shear of 40+ kt will likely support some
risk for supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging
winds. A threat for a tornado or two is also apparent with any
supercell that can persist, as effective SRH should generally range
from 100-150 m2/s2. Watch issuance appears likely as the ongoing
thunderstorms in southern Ontario/Quebec approach the international
border.

..Gleason/Hart.. 05/21/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6hs71nSFbrXXfnA_PXZhW0Qf8TZ9UU3FAuyns_at3_FKN7_-Bzj2CcfREKaDrRNxWyHiuQFCq= vSJURIs-NJp7-zJBgo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...

LAT...LON 44497586 45047492 45057158 45267147 45457085 45787047
46167034 46866996 47496920 47386822 47196778 46886774
45366915 44297106 44207387 44277509 44497586=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 241943
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241942=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-242115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0854
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023

Areas affected...Portions of eastern New Mexico into the western
Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 241942Z - 242115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will likely evolve off of the
higher terrain and dryline this afternoon. Supercells capable of
large to very large hail are likely. A couple of tornadoes are also
possible. A Weather Watch will likely be needed this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Ahead of a subtle mid-level perturbation across the
southern High Plains, afternoon satellite imagery showed towering
cumulus and incipient thunderstorms developing along the higher
terrain of northeastern NM. As diurnal heating continues, subtle
forcing for ascent from the mid-level wave and upslope flow will
erode remaining inhibition and allow for robust thunderstorm
development this afternoon. Mid to upper 50s dewpoints, along with
steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 C/km will support a broad plume
of moderate (1500-2500 J/kg) MLCAPE. While modest in the low-levels
owing to weak surface flow, RAP forecast hodographs are elongated in
the mid and upper levels supporting effective shear of 35-45 kt.
Weak forcing along the terrain and a diffuse dryline should allow
for relatively discrete storms to develop and organize into
splitting supercells through the afternoon.=20

As storms develop and track east/southeastward, steep mid-level
lapse rates, modest low-level shear, and a supercell mode will be
very favorable for large to very large hail initially. Weak
low-level flow should strengthen into the evening hours with the
development of the low-level jet. Some localized enhancement of
low-level shear is also possible along a remnant outflow boundary
across portions of the western TX Panhandle. Given the supercell
mode and expected discrete nature of storms, a couple of tornadoes
are possible. Experimental WOFS and Hi-res CAM guidance suggest
storm development will likely occur within the next 1-2 hours. Given
the potential for supercells within a favorable parameter space, a
Weather Watch will likely be needed this afternoon.

..Lyons/Grams.. 05/24/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7J-fVnlVG-z0u6iboPpzTchqDQ5n9MYyVh1BYAOqH4yjAsE-ac5eHm9oGD1mJXbNWQZJr14SD= _DPS7I7eoSXFmrhuJ8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36960268 36830228 36370212 32380254 32210260 32020277
31860309 32090351 36330463 36620466 36820458 36930429
36930401 36960268=20


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