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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0847

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, May 21, 2022 00:11:37
    ACUS11 KWNS 210011
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 210010=20
    INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-210215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0847
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0710 PM CDT Fri May 20 2022

    Areas affected...Northeast Missouri through northeast Illinois

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 210010Z - 210215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing along and
    behind a cold front may be capable of strong winds and severe hail.
    However, the coverage of this threat appears limited, and watch
    issuance is not anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...A cold front continues to meander to the southeast
    across IL and MO per recent surface observations and GOES visible
    imagery. RAP mesoanalysis data shows the environment along and ahead
    of the cold front remains largely capped, but features 2000-3000
    J/kg MUCAPE due to steep mid-level lapse rates between 700-500 mb.
    Despite recent analyses, recent ACARs soundings from Chicago, IL and
    St. Louis, MO show weaker capping, and a few weak thunderstorms and
    convective showers have initiated in both regions. This trend
    suggests that the cap is breakable given sufficient forcing for
    ascent along and/or behind the cold front. Lift along the frontal
    zone may increase over the next 1-2 hours as broad ascent associated
    with the upper-level trough (currently displaced to the west over
    the Plains based on recent water-vapor imagery) overspreads the
    Midwest. This may support isolated to scattered thunderstorm
    development along and behind the front in the coming hours. This
    convection may become elevated in nature, but 30-45 knots of
    effective bulk shear should allow for sufficient storm organization
    to support a severe hail risk with sporadic strong/locally damaging
    winds. Overall, the coverage of thunderstorms remains uncertain
    given the heterogeneity in the regional cap strength, which
    precludes watch issuance at this time.

    ..Moore/Guyer.. 05/21/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_HBdmGBw8RAuoyeuSMPs5Dym-GlI0GeGFb7o-bkOsgvjEkTnrwO0ndDtDTNBLUBBffj0jVtRG= HYtQr06eh9442A36qU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

    LAT...LON 39649272 40469200 41399058 42338905 42698774 42298769
    42048749 41798741 41798698 41268706 40758751 40138802
    39608881 39248950 38879041 38709123 38679176 38719216
    38839240 39649272=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, May 23, 2023 20:50:07
    ACUS11 KWNS 232049
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 232049=20
    TXZ000-232145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0847
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0349 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023

    Areas affected...,portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 232049Z - 232145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A persistent storm and some additional convection may pose
    a risk for a few damaging gusts and hail this afternoon. A weather
    watch is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2040 UTC, regional radar showed a persistent
    thunderstorm over parts of Montgomery County TX. Located ahead of a
    remnant MCV and along an air mass boundary, this storm has shown
    occasional organization with a recent gusts to 44 and 42 kt recorded
    near Huntsville, and Conroe, TX respectively. Ahead of the storm, a sufficiently unstable air mass with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE will
    likely allow for continued updraft maintenance. Additional
    convective development was noted ahead of this storm this afternoon
    suggesting some upscale growth is possible. Vertical shear is weak
    at 20-25 kt. However, enhanced convergence south of the MCV and
    along the air mass boundary may support a low-end risk for damaging
    wind gusts and some marginally severe hail as these storms move
    across the Houston Metro over the next couple of hours. Given the
    limited convective coverage a weather watch is unlikely.

    ..Lyons/Grams.. 05/23/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5bmV5-YJpfjrioMUvrXL1CrPIs2xDFMt-ysJJUEJx0qK_e6xcHFOY6GAMiHeQYxNEp_GVhTzr= Q5selEsUrbdYvf_sws$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...HGX...

    LAT...LON 30559562 30639553 30519530 30379512 30089493 29739481
    29349475 29179480 28899507 29109519 29549553 29909565
    30369565 30559562=20


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