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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0842

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, May 20, 2022 19:21:08
    ACUS11 KWNS 201921
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 201920=20
    CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-202045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0842
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0220 PM CDT Fri May 20 2022

    Areas affected...far southeast New York

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 201920Z - 202045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple damaging gusts may accompany the northern end of
    a squall line. A WW issuance is unlikely given the marginal and
    isolated nature of the severe threat.

    DISCUSSION...A squall line continues to expand northeast into
    extreme northeast PA as the MCV continues to rapidly track east
    across central PA. Ahead of the squall in southeast NY, temperatures
    have warmed into the mid 70s F given adequate diurnal heating,
    promoting weak low-level instability. 19Z mesoanalysis shows 0-3km
    lapse rates exceeding 7 C/km in some locales. The modest
    boundary-layer mixing and strong forcing (to support a squall line)
    suggests that a couple of strong to potentially damaging gusts may
    accompany the squall over the next couple of hours. A WW issuance is
    unlikely though since the severe threat is expected to remain
    isolated and marginal in magnitude.

    ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/20/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_j7LavJHLVQ1OrqW9frlEnYZTOXQ1IA-duIHj7AtGHnSLPS6eRx-pyAvNyWyl9KkvCNO1colI= LmfXRw7UfnS-P6KCeE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

    LAT...LON 41377536 41877549 42217530 42307494 42187426 41837387
    41187350 40727354 40607369 40857406 41077425 41237450
    41287504 41377536=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, May 22, 2023 23:18:43
    ACUS11 KWNS 222318
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 222318=20
    TXZ000-230115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0842
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0618 PM CDT Mon May 22 2023

    Areas affected...much of northwest Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 231...

    Valid 222318Z - 230115Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 231
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Scattered storms may persist well into the evening, moving
    generally southeastward across northwest Texas. Both hail and severe
    gusts will be possible, and additional downstream counties may
    require a watch.

    DISCUSSION...Storms moving from the TX Panhandle into the South
    Plains are currently of mixed mode, and producing both severe hail
    and wind. A recent gust to 66 mph was measured in Crosby County, TX
    with a severe cell, and other cells in the vicinity may produce
    similar results. Other storms toward CDS are showing a linear mode,
    and this may eventually become the dominant type over the next few
    hours.

    Visible imagery shows a CU field extending downstream across
    northwest TX, as far east as Young and Stephens Counties, but
    generally north of San Angelo. This region has favorable theta-e
    with upper 50s F dewpoints and where temperatures peaked in the
    upper 80s F.

    Although only modest northwest flow aloft exists, it is favorably
    situated over moist southeasterly low-level winds, creating around
    35 kt effective shear. The current batch of storms will continue to
    interact, and possibly merge into an MCS over the next several
    hours. As this becomes more likely, areas downstream may need to be
    in a watch for damaging gusts and hail.

    ..Jewell.. 05/22/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-Dc0KXhy80QKTt_eltgX4jQTVMoDaWkllinTvSHPw4niEXYjoggQRbk6CcdSXY-hDXxw3_spH= Baik6Y27YfJlJ-UeAM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

    LAT...LON 32579875 32479895 32399967 32460051 32690098 33040133
    33390161 33840134 33990069 34350031 34229995 33829940
    33489886 33279855 32809859 32579875=20


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