• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0840

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, May 20, 2022 17:32:38
    ACUS11 KWNS 201732
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 201732=20
    MIZ000-202000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0840
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1232 PM CDT Fri May 20 2022

    Areas affected...northern Lower Michigan...far eastern Upper
    Peninsula

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 201732Z - 202000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms crossing Lake Michigan are expected to pose a
    damaging wind and hail threat across northern Lower Michigan, and
    perhaps into the far eastern Upper Peninsula. A tornado cannot be
    ruled out over Lower Michigan.

    DISCUSSION...A broken line of elevated storms have formed over
    eastern WI, and are now crossing over Lake MI. Cool air aloft in
    the mid and upper levels is aiding storm strength with hail cores
    noted at times.

    Downstream over Lower MI, heating continues, although a capping
    inversion remains near 700 mb. High clouds overspreading the area
    may retard heating to some degree, but CIN is expected to be reduced
    later this afternoon enough to support a continued severe threat as
    the storms come off Lake MI. Strong deep-layer shear may also help a
    few of these storms survive the capping inversion.

    Large hail and damaging gusts appear most likely. If storm mode can
    trend toward cellular, and the capping inversion gets removed
    sufficiently, then 0-1 SRH of 100-150 m2/s2 could support a tornado
    threat, most likely late in the afternoon nearer to peak heating.

    ..Jewell/Hart.. 05/20/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4_g83JtsdY4ewfjs6cSRp_3J8K18bx8iq2Nbl83eJlm6E1YN7O5TPYrBaoPUh9bzpJYXcpHQo= A1s6t_3wU--0X4FTKA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

    LAT...LON 44348328 43938362 43838468 43778648 44728631 45088597
    46298512 46578462 46558408 45018318 44348328=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, May 22, 2023 20:46:38
    ACUS11 KWNS 222046
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 222045=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-222215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0840
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0345 PM CDT Mon May 22 2023

    Areas affected...portions of the TX Panhandle...southwest OK...and
    western North Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 231...

    Valid 222045Z - 222215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 231
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue this
    afternoon and into this evening. An initial threat for hail will
    likely transition more to damaging winds as cells cluster later this afternoon/evening.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2040 UTC, regional radar analysis showed
    scattered thunderstorms ongoing across portions of the TX Panhandle
    and far southwestern OK within WW231. Over the last couple of hours,
    storms have intensified with MRMS MESH showing cores supportive of
    hail in the 1-2" range. While storms have predominately been
    multi-cellular thus far, transient mid-level rotation has also been
    noted with area VADs showing effective shear of 25-30 kt. The mixed
    storm mode should continue this afternoon, with a threat for large
    hail and isolated damaging wind gusts. Given the number of storms,
    cells should gradually merge into one or more southeastward-moving
    clusters as outflow consolidates, similar to what the latest HRRR
    data suggests. A locally greater threat for damaging winds may then
    evolve across portions of the southeastern Panhandle where
    consolidating storms and stronger outflow may support some severe
    gusts this evening.

    ..Lyons.. 05/22/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-yqXxL637HsLPLr3j3LhyPvmqeTGrlawoQYVNGR5CpanPhZHVZusV7t-fq3tOX76_-BaMdLWl= Zs3IAVerh5eNNYKRLY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

    LAT...LON 33510197 34100202 34310193 34590171 34640166 35310111
    35490105 35630091 35660060 35389981 35239949 34639934
    33749952 33469992 33280024 33060124 33200182 33510197=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)