ACUS11 KWNS 201532
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201531=20
FLZ000-201800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0839
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 AM CDT Fri May 20 2022

Areas affected...much of southern Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 201531Z - 201800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous storms are expected by afternoon,
with locally damaging wind gusts or marginally severe hail.

DISCUSSION...A moist and unstable air mass is already in place
across southern FL, with PWAT over 2.00" and no capping inversion.
Early day storms have left a cooled air mass across the central
Peninsula, with heating continuing to the south, which is resulting
in MUCAPE over 3000 J/kg. Storms are already forming off the Gulf
and Atlantic coasts, with expanding showers over land. Just 1-2 more
hours of heating will likely result in a rapid expansion of
convection, perhaps spreading northwestward with strong outflow.
However, wind fields are weak and storm motion may be erratic.
Water-loaded downdrafts may produce locally damaging gusts, and the
strong instability and cool midlevel temperatures may support brief
periods of marginal hail.

..Jewell/Hart.. 05/20/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!57K5QmfVAvLpC_txj08gV_hSOIOpoZ0K6cV9Clv7IJ0-BYzgyr2N4J8aqo5QzEi03xjrzyZuo= fMZY3B3wjDJhNwwj-c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...

LAT...LON 25767999 25148022 25138050 25078112 25208128 25858178
26588233 27288268 27848290 28068278 27938235 27628162
27388055 27258014 26807995 25767999=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 222042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222041=20
MTZ000-IDZ000-222245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0839
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Mon May 22 2023

Areas affected...Parts of southwest into central MT

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 222041Z - 222245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for isolated hail and localized severe gusts will
continue through the rest of the afternoon. Watch issuance remains
unlikely.

DISCUSSION...At 2030 UTC, a weakly organized storm cluster is moving
across west-central MT, with some recent development noted into
southwest MT. The cluster approaching Great Falls has mostly only
produced subsevere hail and wind thus far, though some increase in
severe potential remains possible as it moves into an increasingly
unstable environment downstream, where steeper low-level lapse rates
may favor an uptick in severe wind potential. However, with
generally modest buoyancy and stronger deep-layer flow/shear
expected to remain northwest of the strongest convection, the severe
threat is still expected to remain isolated at best. Additional
cells/clusters may evolve out of developing convection in southwest
MT and move northeastward, with a similar risk of isolated hail and
localized strong/severe gusts. The overall severe risk still appears
too marginal and isolated for watch issuance.

..Dean/Grams.. 05/22/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5JOu7P2het2PB0aWikT7MbPU13vOLZjz_o7vPZ75m5vqbbE2f_QqS5K1EWnXy54DM7H4YuI8I= 02KQn47sN1F6JSlr3c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON 46660929 45921010 45081136 44511247 44871342 44981347
45391371 45601334 45981264 46401192 48371122 48540994
48570916 47660869 47210890 46660929=20


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