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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0837

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, May 20, 2022 02:52:33
    ACUS11 KWNS 200252
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 200251=20
    KYZ000-INZ000-200445-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0837
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0951 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

    Areas affected...southern IN

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 249...

    Valid 200251Z - 200445Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 249
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk for wind damage and localized severe gusts will
    continue with stronger storms on the southeast flank of the MCV
    moving east across the lower Wabash Valley. Brief tornadoes are
    also possible with any sustained mesovortices due in part to strong
    low-level shear and a moist boundary layer.

    DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows an MCV over south-central IL moving
    east towards the IN border. A rejuvenation of thunderstorm activity
    has occurred on the southeast flank of the large-scale mid-level circulation/rain shield. Surface conditions remain rather moist
    with a warm frontal zone/composite outflow boundary draped across
    southern IN near the I-64 corridor. KLVX VAD has shown the earlier
    described and projected intensification of the low-level wind field
    across southern IN with 50-kt noted at 1 km AGL at KIND's VAD. As a
    result, a continued risk for storm-scale rotation and the risk for
    wind damage will continue for the next several hours as the stronger
    storms move east along the I-64 corridor in southern IN.

    ..Smith.. 05/20/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_yiH9Lac-_YcJPsh_QyHWoMOHRDSGt5jX3hDv4KfZIdRWXQL-DGI_1UaH_5DKFco5yMhNaxbc= LeqZWi2pOWqJkrdOS8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...

    LAT...LON 38518574 38628738 38328765 38078750 38098572 38388549
    38518574=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, May 22, 2023 17:37:11
    ACUS11 KWNS 221737
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 221736=20
    MTZ000-IDZ000-222000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0837
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1236 PM CDT Mon May 22 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of western MT

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 221736Z - 222000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated hail and severe gusts will be
    possible into this afternoon. Watch issuance is currently considered
    unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently developed across parts of
    far western MT, immediately in advance of a mid/upper-level
    shortwave trough moving across the interior Northwest. Downstream
    instability is currently rather modest, but continued diurnal
    heating will eventually support MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg by early
    this afternoon across a larger portion of western into central MT.=20

    Ongoing convection already shows some signs of organization, and
    this trend is expected to continue in the short term as stronger
    deep-layer flow/shear spreads across an increasingly unstable
    environment. A couple marginal supercells will be possible into
    early afternoon, with an initial threat of isolated large hail and
    localized severe gusts.=20

    With time, outflow consolidation may favor some modest upscale
    growth, which would favor some uptick in the severe wind threat.
    However, the stronger mid/upper-level flow associated with the
    approaching shortwave is forecast to move northeastward toward
    northwest MT, while convection will tend to propagate with more of
    an eastward component toward west-central MT. As a result,
    uncertainty remains regarding the extent of storm organization with
    time. Watch issuance is currently considered unlikely, but this will
    be reevaluated if any notable uptick in storm intensity and
    organization is noted over the next 1-2 hours.

    ..Dean/Grams.. 05/22/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5sW9KMHKaaHU-N5ZrPRTYY8W5rtCpvr8se_9RI6eiLUe8-NTwk2bdzv1rlkEnHjqG7fiACfHd= xcp4TyF0XrA_mJDb_w$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...

    LAT...LON 47661344 48221317 48121149 47831115 47471083 46821100
    46401137 46041207 45731274 45351391 45481421 45771421
    46871375 47661344=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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