ACUS11 KWNS 200038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200038=20
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-200245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0836
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

Areas affected...Southeast Minnesota into western Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 246...

Valid 200038Z - 200245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 246
continues.

SUMMARY...Sporadic severe hail will remain possible through the late
evening hours across parts of southeast Minnesota into western
Wisconsin.

DISCUSSION...Training convection along/north of the surface warm
front in the vicinity of a surface low over south-central MN has
shown signs of weakening over the past hour. This is likely due to
destructive storm interference as semi-discrete storms merge into a
poorly organized cluster. Despite this trend, the 00 UTC sounding
from MPX reveals 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates and modest
boundary-layer moisture supporting around 1200 J/kg MUCAPE in the
vicinity of the cluster. This observation is consistent with recent mesoanalysis estimates, which shows a gradually diminishing MUCAPE
field to the east into central WI. Favorable effective bulk shear
near 40 knots (sampled by the 00 UTC MPX and DVN soundings) remains
supportive of organized convection. Despite recent trends, this
environment remains supportive of organized convection, so an
intensification of one or more cells within the cluster remains
possible through the late evening and will maintain the severe hail
threat. This activity may persist into central WI late tonight as
the warm frontal zone lifts north, but the overall severe threat
beyond 03 UTC remains uncertain.

..Moore.. 05/20/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!80jSKFSmL4xsDaNXfGZKKle2mfwWkB7kVo49RAgcjTV9PhR5ohnlx0ZosMXnHinVKDu52rJqp= eKeThkGK3PI9QJZI3o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON 43619264 44079267 45069128 45019037 44488984 43798983
43519029 43439117 43509175 43619264=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 221640
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221639=20
FLZ000-221915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0836
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 AM CDT Mon May 22 2023

Areas affected...Parts of the FL Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 221639Z - 221915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An increase in storm coverage and intensity is expected
this afternoon, with isolated damaging wind gusts possible with the
strongest storms.

DISCUSSION...Convection is beginning to increase early this
afternoon in association with the east coast and west coast sea
breezes across the FL Peninsula. Flow below 500 mb is expected to
remain quite weak across the region, but modestly enhanced
upper-level flow and MLCAPE increasing above 1500 J/kg may support
some marginally organized convection later this afternoon as storms
mature. Outflow-dominant multicells will likely be the most likely
convective mode this afternoon, though a supercell or two cannot be
ruled out in the vicinity of sea-breeze and outflow mergers, where
effective shear may be locally enhanced.=20

Locally strong/damaging gusts are expected to be the primary hazard,
though isolated hail cannot be ruled out with any sustained stronger
cells. The coverage and magnitude of the severe threat are expected
to remain too limited for watch issuance.

..Dean/Grams.. 05/22/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6RG3mGdYhNU7WCkqqZgbfG1HHV_2FNG_fm5SVj8TuGtTvaTcaAr1Cie3svK9oYRWGut310NCG= 1R6ejGmsMMgpsRMpJE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON 25918049 26068126 27948236 29248241 29368141 28528096
27648070 26568045 25918049=20


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