ACUS11 KWNS 200004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200004=20
IAZ000-NEZ000-200200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0835
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0704 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

Areas affected...Far eastern Nebraska to central Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 200004Z - 200200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop this evening along a cold front. Storms will likely pose a
risk for large hail and damaging winds from far eastern Nebraska to
central Iowa. Trends will be monitored, and a watch is possible if a sufficiently widespread threat becomes apparent.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations across the Plains and upper Mississippi River valley reveal a gradually deepening surface low
over south-central MN with a cold front pushing east/southeast into
eastern SD/eastern NE. Latest GOES visible imagery reveals a
deepening cumulus field along a surface trough ahead of the front
and across parts of central IA, where an attempt at convective
initiation was noted over the past hour. Latest RAP analyses
indicate the warm sector is only weakly capped with around 500-1500
J/kg MLCAPE. Strong flow aloft ahead of an approaching shortwave
trough is supporting 40-50 knots of effective bulk shear largely
orthogonal to the cold frontal boundary, which will may support
broken linear segments and potentially a few discrete cells.=20=20

In the near term, an isolated cell or two is possible across central
IA where weak low-level confluence is promoting a couple of attempts
at convective initiation, but thunderstorm chances should increase
between 01-03 UTC as the cold front moves into IA. Convective trends
will be monitored, and a watch is possible across the region when/if
a sufficiently widespread severe threat becomes apparent.

..Moore/Guyer.. 05/20/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6pLsgNjZ-MU2HLhi8YlYJSXfn8WToDUzrz8sEjj1CnAfjlYyxYYTToeN0XUpx_PZbzNiW5GNW= v7BHv5r79SLhjdrSiE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON 41299656 42439608 43069550 43139432 43109294 42789264
42149258 41449298 40939368 40619472 40609547 40609599
40779642 41299656=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 221506
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221505=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-221730-

Mesoscale Discussion 0835
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1005 AM CDT Mon May 22 2023

Areas affected...Parts of the FL Panhandle/north FL...Southeast
AL...Southern GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 221505Z - 221730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will increase into the afternoon.
Isolated damaging winds and perhaps some hail will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Strong storms have developed in multiple areas near the
FL/GA border this morning, with one cluster noted northeast of
Tallahassee, and a storm occasionally exhibiting marginal supercell characteristics north of Jacksonville. The 12Z TLH and JAX soundings
both exhibited moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of greater than 1000 J/kg),
relatively cool midlevel temperatures (around -10 C at 500 mb), weak low/midlevel flow, and somewhat stronger upper-level flow above 500
mb. This environment will generally persist through the morning into
the afternoon, with some modest strengthening of effective shear
possible as a low-amplitude, mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves
across the region. Storm coverage is expected to increase late this
morning into this afternoon, with most 12Z CAM guidance suggesting
the development of a southwestward-moving outflow that will focus
initiation and perhaps briefly enhance effective shear for storms
that can remain rooted to the boundary.=20

Localized damaging winds appear to be the most likely severe hazard,
especially if a larger-scale outflow/cold pool can develop with
time. Buoyancy and deep-layer shear may be marginally sufficient for
an isolated hail threat with the strongest cells as well. The
magnitude of the overall severe threat is expected to remain too
limited for watch issuance.

..Dean/Grams.. 05/22/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4s_LNoRtCAphVU3rjAdyFHDpZo2YBzMLsHElvrKmY-dR9MnTL7IuYp_LKWl2YC21G9DZmP7Yt= tV6ALtsq0dQgL9p_pI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 29318294 29298370 29498493 29948565 30228654 30278708
30288744 31078754 31858709 31928628 31848551 30968250
30918214 30858191 30838157 30238125 29738117 29408130
29288225 29318294=20


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