• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0831

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, May 19, 2022 19:36:31
    ACUS11 KWNS 191936
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 191935=20
    ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-192130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0831
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0235 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

    Areas affected...southern Missouri into southern Illinois

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 243...

    Valid 191935Z - 192130Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 243 continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for severe winds and perhaps a brief tornado is
    increasing across south-central into southeastern Missouri.

    DISCUSSION...Convection associated with an MCV has consolidated into
    an organized bow echo over the past hour, and is likely producing
    severe winds. Downstream of this feature, the air mass continues to
    become more unstable with temperatures above 80 F and MUCAPE over
    3000 J/kg. Pressure falls are also increasing across southeast MO as
    the air mass warms.=20

    Given the substantial amount of instability, pristine air mass ahead
    of this feature, and favorable time of day, further strengthening is
    expected, with swaths of significant wind damage possible. An
    additional watch may eventually be needed farther east should storm
    severity persist.

    ..Jewell.. 05/19/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!40tOObdpwpC6NuOS5L0jIfXpFYYAek8B2WBP6VAvOmM68Zhfti5jFcsz3O0qwvew7aIVAm6ln= SwpPlVmIoe5wbeDW2Q$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

    LAT...LON 37809221 37879188 38079129 38399031 38498974 38278904
    37928866 37558866 37028914 37018950 36939037 36989110
    37119215 37139279 37369251 37539245 37639240 37809221=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, May 21, 2023 18:30:03
    ACUS11 KWNS 211829
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 211829=20
    FLZ000-GAZ000-212030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0831
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0129 PM CDT Sun May 21 2023

    Areas affected...portions of southeastern georgia into the northern
    Florida Peninsula

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 211829Z - 212030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along a weak front and the sea
    breeze may pose a risk for isolated damaging gusts and small hail
    this afternoon. A weather watch is not anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...As of 1820 UTC, regional radar and satellite analysis
    showed scattered thunderstorms developing along a weak frontal zone
    across portions of southern GA and northern FL. Further convective
    development appears likely this afternoon along the front and sea
    breeze boundaries as surface temperatures continue to warm into the
    upper 80s F. While mid-level lapse rates are poor (5-6 C/km) The
    warm and moist air mass with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F
    will support moderate buoyancy with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE
    available. Aided by subtle enhancement of the mid-level flow from a
    passing shortwave over the Carolinas, a few stronger updrafts may
    gradually evolve into multi-cell clusters or transient supercell
    structures this afternoon. The high PWAT air mass will favor heavily water-loaded downdrafts capable of isolated damaging wind gusts,
    especially with any more persistent/forward-propagating clusters.
    Hi-res guidance and observational trends suggest the greatest
    corridor of threat will likely evolve along the intersection of the
    cold front and sea breeze front across portions of far southeastern
    GA and the northern FL Peninsula this afternoon. While a few
    damaging gusts are possible, the sporadic nature of storm
    organization owing to the lack of more robust upper-level support
    suggests a weather watch is unlikely.

    ..Lyons/Grams.. 05/21/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6XBMbdoABsGrLXZU2O7f6y2llu0NECXUtjLzR09lNMvMiSQFrbfTYOy95DRu74xjolFr1sU_b= cCSL_p7Oco3mHuzX44$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...

    LAT...LON 29678127 29338135 29158147 28908155 28788172 28828210
    28978239 29308241 31308272 31838249 31958168 30928145
    30138137 29678127=20


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