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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0830

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, May 19, 2022 18:37:30
    ACUS11 KWNS 191837
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 191836=20
    IAZ000-MNZ000-192030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0830
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0136 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of northern Iowa and southern Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 191836Z - 192030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Supercells are expected to develop this afternoon along a
    warm front near the Iowa/Minnesota border. These storms would be
    capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes and very large
    hail. A tornado watch is likely within the next 2 hours.

    DISCUSSION...A warm front continues to lift northward near the
    Iowa/Minnesota border. Dewpoints near the boundary are generally in
    the low 60s F. A narrow corridor of low/mid 60s F dewpoints exists
    in southwestern Iowa with dewpoints in parts of central/eastern Iowa
    mixing out into the upper 50s F. With an MCV currently in
    southern/central Missouri, the degree and quality of moisture return
    is uncertain with eastward extent. The KOAX/KFSD VWP have sampled
    the 35-40 kts 850 mb winds that are helping to increase low-level
    shear in the vicinity of the warm front. Objective mesoanalysis is
    showing near 400 m2/s2 effective SRH right along the boundary in
    northwest Iowa. Storms that form along and interact favorably with
    the boundary will be capable of all severe hazards, including
    tornadoes and very large hail. Should any storms move north of the
    boundary, the tornado threat would be less, but large/very-large
    hail would remain possible. Though low-level shear/SRH would suggest
    the potential for a strong tornado, the continued decrease in
    dewpoints within western/central Iowa makes this a low-probability
    scenario. A tornado watch is likely within the next 2 hours.

    ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/19/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9f_vR6tEWzWutUkkXPuCGbzIg9tULCG0lxCpJ0tmD5bQzl1n57GaaAuRiuL-KAR3KihJjgk6B= QATRzpTc9oxM_CdGmw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

    LAT...LON 43299535 43989493 44249450 44299372 43909299 43509248
    42879237 42649326 42599422 43299535=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, May 20, 2023 23:49:57
    ACUS11 KWNS 202349
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 202349=20
    ORZ000-210145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0830
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0649 PM CDT Sat May 20 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of central OR

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 202349Z - 210145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated hail and localized severe gusts
    will be possible into early evening.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have increased in coverage late this
    afternoon across parts of central OR, within a warm and modestly
    unstable (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) environment. Deep-layer
    flow/shear is rather weak across the region, though a modest
    increase in effective shear is possible over the next 2-3 hours as
    midlevel flow gradually increases in advance of an approaching
    mid/upper-level shortwave trough off of the Pacific Northwest coast.

    Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates may support an isolated severe
    hail threat, especially closer to the Cascades, where storm mode is
    expected to be more discrete and effective shear may be slightly
    stronger. Otherwise, localized strong/severe gusts will be possible
    with any of the stronger cells/clusters into this evening. The
    coverage and magnitude of the threat is expected to remain too
    limited for watch issuance.

    ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/20/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9rK2OpvgK9FA7M0AhxC4U7jnpVd1ltwi0Qd1oBfsorDWVDW1cr4W4Ar6UaB-D38Vkke5PQ77b= nLakjZLVJkbCmkQFQs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BOI...PDT...MFR...

    LAT...LON 43262182 44482164 45002124 45022118 45441949 45301864
    43851859 43801895 43671956 43472053 43142157 43262182=20


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