ACUS11 KWNS 191819
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191818=20
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-192045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0829
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

Areas affected...southern Indiana into Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 191818Z - 192045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Clusters of storms producing large hail and sporadic wind
damage are expected to persist for several more hours.

DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows a substantial CU field across TN
and KY, with a surge of higher dewpoints northward. Storms have
erupted along this effective front over southern IN which also lies
within the 850 theta-e advection zone. Given continued heating and
the persistent diffuse moist advection zone, addition clusters of
storms may form east or southeastward into KY, with hail and
localized wind damage. The ongoing IN cluster may effectively
translate eastward, and additional isolated storms may develop to
its south over central KY.

..Jewell/Hart.. 05/19/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4RXe4QHR_8uEf17zvwavspuNHcaapfU2a_xyeCcpDHQh_YhExPNjrdYYu1Rj6oU-U-y9c0JYf= AfNnKBtgogrdeC7UVc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON 36938584 36918625 36988667 37208699 37578725 37778754
38068784 38208789 38428774 38998711 39218649 39178509
38818444 38128429 37588446 37228476 37058493 36938584=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 202325
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202325=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-210130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0829
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 PM CDT Sat May 20 2023

Areas affected...southwestern New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 202325Z - 210130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Marginally severe wind and hail possible over the next
couple of hours. A watch is unlikely to be needed.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has increased over southwestern
New Mexico and across the Mexico border. Daytime heating has allow
MUCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg across the region, with storms in
Mexico increasing in intensity over the last hour. These storms have
merged with a broken line of storms moving eastward across Luna
County in New Mexico. A lone cell ahead of this line has had
indications of severe hail (up 1-1.25 inches). Flow is weak, with
deep layer shear around 20 kts. RAP analysis indicates shear may
increase to around 20-30 kts through the rest of the afternoon as
the weak upper-low across southern Arizona continues to drift
northward. Sounding profiles and surface analysis indicates very dry
air near surface air, which may support gusty downburst winds as
thunderstorms decay. Storm mode will continue to favor high-based
and broken clusters, with potential for severe hail in addition to
gusty winds.

..Thornton/Guyer.. 05/20/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8r5RLK6lrQV8r1d_f2z_psQ9_ToVKj4ZfApnSMDaKACxulIg7Ap4bPpbMksowzkxi7d_W8w7B= VFrOth2s1ohtLa7F4w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 32010822 32290831 32940821 33300796 33450750 33390702
33150666 32870652 32470649 32200654 31950660 31840692
31810721 31820766 31820794 31820820 32010822=20


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