ACUS11 KWNS 191636
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191636=20
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-191800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0827
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022

Areas affected...Northeast Iowa...southeast Minnesota...far
west-central Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 191636Z - 191800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail is possible with elevated this storms
late this morning into early afternoon. No watch is expected until
the primary activity develops later this afternoon, but trends will
be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Modest elevated destabilization will continue into
parts of Iowa/Minnesota/Wisconsin ahead of a warm front expected to
lift northward this afternoon. Given the mid-level flow observed on
the KFSD/KARX, around 40-50 kts of effective shear will support a
organized storms. Isolated large hail will be possible with these
elevated storms. Longevity of these storms is somewhat in question
given modest 850 mb warm advection that decreases to the east and
thermodynamic profiles will not significantly improve until much
later in the afternoon. No watch is expected until the primary
activity develops later this afternoon, but trends will be
monitored.

..Wendt/Hart.. 05/19/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-0EjhVsupSQryckK_ZwkZGRnxbIRyqR4W2WSLf51C0UgfaKrS7bYYBU-me9imco2Heo7_G6SA= LVh7PvHwMV-0KZleSw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON 42939246 43149377 43309390 43599408 43919389 44109366
44219302 44029155 43819105 43359104 42959149 42889179
42939246=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 200217
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200217=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-200315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0827
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0917 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

Areas affected...portions of southwest into central Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 229...

Valid 200217Z - 200315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 229
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 229, and the threat may persist beyond 03Z, requiring a local
watch extension in time. Severe hail/wind will be the main hazards.

DISCUSSION...Multiple multicellular clusters and transient
supercells persist from the NM/TX border into central TX. Some of
these storms are likely producing severe hail, as indicated by MRMS
mosaic MESH data. While many storms have produced outflow boundaries
and have overturned the airmass in several locales, 1000-2000 J/kg
MUCAPE still exists ahead of the cold front amid 30-45 kts of
effective bulk shear. Strong to occasionally severe storms should
persist for a few more hours, producing severe hail and perhaps a
few severe gusts. Since Severe Thunderstorm Watch 229 expires at
03Z, a local extension in time for the watch may be needed where the
stronger storms persist.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/20/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!66DbVuEjBjxJoB3rReN5bUeP2UfJjVlT-MDQ29BpuWS_tuV5Fnvbj47Xdjv_aRTULtGZGQSyU= LBUZSwiaDgn1ambiVM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 32620314 32499996 31939894 31399848 30929821 30579823
30259845 30259926 30430046 30820167 31200259 31500306
31820333 32620314=20


=3D =3D =3D
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