ACUS11 KWNS 191505
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191505=20
INZ000-ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-191730-

Mesoscale Discussion 0826
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1005 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022

Areas affected...central into eastern Missouri and southwest
Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 191505Z - 191730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may produce sporadic hail over the next several
hours, eventually affecting the St. Louis area and crossing into
Illinois.

DISCUSSION...Strong storms persist in the warm advection regime
ahead of a prominent MCV, with sporadic hail cores noted. This
leading cluster of storms is currently moving east/northeastward,
embedded within a larger-scale area of deep theta-e advection, which
in itself is also shifting northeast. Therefore, the trend of
pulsing hail cores should persist today, and may strengthen later
this afternoon as instability is maximized from heating. Steep lapse
rates aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to favor
hail cores, but a wind risk could develop out of this activity at
which time a watch would become more likely.

..Jewell/Hart.. 05/19/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5vJkAttpDCy6sDBQnkFVyNHhSogTAPA_vZNdJrS5t9zHsgO579kUCTr0mOOtq2PWZaTt6BIb5= Baa3vo6pSADpbTu93E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON 38459227 38859208 39249159 39589037 39548967 39528913
39328846 38738799 37968796 37618805 37308838 37198953
37348999 37519067 37649122 37669162 37769202 38459227=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 192249
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192249=20
TXZ000-200015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0826
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0549 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

Areas affected...portions of northern and central Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 228...

Valid 192249Z - 200015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 228
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat continues within WW228.

DISCUSSION...Radar analysis shows ongoing storms within WW228 near
the Metroplex have weakened as remnant outflow has begun to drift
back to the west and storms move into relatively less MLCAPE beneath
some shallow mid-level CIN. These storms will still be capable of
occasional hail and gusty winds as they continue eastward as a few
more hours of daytime heating can be expected.=20

Within the southern fringe of the watch, more robust storms are
ongoing with further development expected along the border with
WW229. In this region, MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg and deep layer
shear around 30-35 kts will support a continued risk of large hail
(with a few instances up to 2+ inches) and damaging winds over the
next couple of hours.

..Thornton/Guyer.. 05/19/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-bc5M0mdTuhAB_Yy9G6KMaFO62QFvFXIe35Nf4wPd0cVbeuQfETxU-dmNG7ky3blfqyC7jfzV= hOPzEH5qpqosFvf1SM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 31419907 31879822 32559743 33099695 33239650 33239615
33179565 32989559 32729575 32509591 32289609 31549679
30899733 30879768 31309905 31419907=20


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