• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0824

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, May 19, 2022 06:34:57
    ACUS11 KWNS 190634
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 190634=20
    OKZ000-190730-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0824
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0134 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022

    Areas affected...portions of western and central OK

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 242...

    Valid 190634Z - 190730Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 242
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe gusts will continue across WW 242 the next few
    hours. A corridor of relatively higher measured gusts is possible
    into parts of central/north-central OK the next 1-2 hours.

    DISCUSSION...A few strong to significant wind gusts have been
    measured by the Oklahoma Mesonet site at Camargo (Dewey County)
    within the last 30 minutes. The strongest gust being 80 mph with
    several other gusts noted in the 65-71 mph range. Regional radar
    data suggests a strengthening rear inflow jet has developed and a
    new bookend vortex/MCV is likely developing within this area. If
    this convective structure and intensity is maintained, this could
    result in a corridor of stronger severe gusts withing the broader
    line of convection shifting east toward north-central/central OK
    over the next couple of hours.

    ..Leitman.. 05/19/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7KH7rZXLEooQKzCV31JRG5hr_oZeeBwlkaUxOuEHdx2LS8XcPr9nC8UwcRZrYG4zrHLUTHgdq= 9CYJsbPlSIjrLMrA9E$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...

    LAT...LON 36399938 36479884 36519838 36419781 36299761 36149751
    35889748 35689753 35599773 35599796 35629824 35679856
    35839908 36039947 36239944 36399938=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, May 19, 2023 21:58:17
    ACUS11 KWNS 192158
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 192157=20
    ORZ000-WAZ000-200000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0824
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0457 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

    Areas affected...central Oregon

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 192157Z - 200000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Marginally severe gusts and hail possible as thunderstorm
    coverage increases through the afternoon. A watch is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows maturing cumulus and developing thunderstorms activity across the Fremont Mountains and Oregon High
    Desert. Daytime heating has allowed MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg
    across the region. RAP soundings indicate profiles are fairly dry
    below 500 mb with large surface dew point depressions in current
    surface observations, especially within the High Desert east of the
    Cascades (around 40-45 F in some locations). Given fairly weak deep
    layer shear around 15 kts, storm mode will be largely multi-cell and
    clustered capable of marginally severe hail and downbursts.

    ..Thornton/Guyer.. 05/19/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4SqDddJx4MvXcvGmAJo3VFsAWli3ttkO48ee2JM2r9BQXUgcepU17GEAAKu8f9v8oQWQ2HJqN= RwCJRB1u_9P6mdsYPU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PDT...MFR...PQR...

    LAT...LON 44232182 45242170 45762125 46002035 45821977 45121959
    43402038 43262100 43262130 43292154 43292166 43692183
    44232182=20


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