ACUS11 KWNS 190531
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190531=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-190630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0823
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022

Areas affected...Western into central OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 242...

Valid 190531Z - 190630Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 242
continues.

SUMMARY...A line of severe thunderstorms producing gusts of 55-65
mph will continue tracking east/southeast the next several hours
across parts of western into central OK.

DISCUSSION...A mature line of storms across far northwest OK and the
northeast TX Panhandle is tracking east/southeast at around 30-40
kt. A 59 mph gust was measured by the Oklahoma Mesonet site at
Slapout in the past hour while the site at Arnett measured a 61 mph
gust at 1220 am LT. Other gusts around 50-65 mph have been noted in
Oklahoma Mesonet and West Texas Mesonet observations. Latest radar
data continues to indicate areas of strong velocity aloft. A gust
front appears to be surging ahead of northern portions of the line
across northwest OK. Strong gusts may occur along the gust front,
though with time this may tend to decrease the intensity of the main
body of convection, as appears to be occurring across parts of
southern KS.=20

Surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s are noted across parts of
west-central into central OK with a reservoir of strong instability
in place. While boundary-layer inhibition may limit more widespread
severe gust potential, it appears likely that at least sporadic
gusts in the 55-65 mph range will continue the next few hours. Given
the current track of convection, addition counties in west-central
and central OK may need to be added to the WW 242 if current trends
are maintained.

..Leitman.. 05/19/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4aBjTSeX0kNGmIAW2wPUrrPYvv7kBldMX5aQNqRNqkz77BnGjs_r5SiYxEfSssj6q6U7usq2y= A3kx2VlYqHXx9fl0pc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON 37249922 37209837 37049749 36779718 36419715 35839701
35419708 35139739 34919843 34909901 35059967 35340013
35710061 35930072 36690020 37109969 37249922=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 192031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192030=20
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-192200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0823
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

Areas affected...portions of central/eastern OK into the ArkLaTex

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 227...

Valid 192030Z - 192200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 227
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk mainly for large hail, isolated damaging gusts,
and perhaps a tornado will continue this afternoon/evening across
portions of eastern OK and the ArkLaTex. Additional storm
development over central OK may spread eastward with a severe threat
later this afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...As of 2025 UTC, regional radar analysis showed several
strong to severe storms ongoing along the Red River across portions
of southern OK and northeastern TX within WW227. Over the last
several hours, these storms have produced occasional reports of
severe hail with the strongest cores. These storms are ongoing
within an environment characterized by moderate buoyancy with
2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE and vertical shear of 35-40 kt, along and
south of a remnant outflow boundary. Observational and hi-res model
guidance trends suggest these storms (including a few supercell
structures) will likely continue to pose a severe risk as they track
eastward towards portions of the AR this afternoon/evening. Hail is
expected to be the primary threat given the favorable buoyancy and
moderate deep-layer shear. Isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps a
tornado are possible, though much less certain given modest
low-level flow.

Farther north and west into portions of central OK, more storm
development was noted along the slow-moving cold front near a
remnant MCV. Slow to develop thus far, a slightly muted
thermodynamic environment may allow for additional storm development
through the afternoon and into this evening. Should these storms
mature, the primary risk would again likely be hail with elongated,
but effectively straight-line hodographs. However, confidence in the
evolution of these storms is much lower owing to the slower recovery
of the previously overturned air mass.

..Lyons.. 05/19/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9nocuuMu3Q8Gaq93QUlu6j70AOZJHu8Pjv38FOv1-CsFwdKpuFaweacvLK0P1gHWppsHUawIu= S7UuCsWo3FO8cbLXU8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 33359688 33929677 34369679 34689689 34939696 35229696
35409673 35199278 34429291 33669326 33039363 33029583
33359688=20


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