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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0820

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, May 19, 2022 00:57:24
    ACUS11 KWNS 190057
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 190057=20
    VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-190230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0820
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0757 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022

    Areas affected...South-central Kentucky into northern middle
    Tennessee

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 240...

    Valid 190057Z - 190230Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 240
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A local severe weather threat may persist for a few more
    hours across southern Kentucky and into northern Middle Tennessee.
    No downstream watch is anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercells has developed on the western
    periphery of an ongoing storm cluster across central/south-central
    Kentucky. The modified 00Z BNA RAOB shows around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE
    and near 50 knots of effective shear in the vicinity of these
    supercells. This should be sufficient for a sustained severe weather
    threat for a few more hours, especially with the strengthening
    low-level jet (~35 knots on the OHX VWP). A tornado or two cannot be
    ruled out with the stronger supercells given the moderately strong
    ongoing mesocyclones and 0-1 SRH around 200 m2/s2 (per OHX VWP).=20

    This cluster of storms may eventually move out of watch 240 into
    northern Tennessee. However, a downstream watch will likely not be
    issued due to the localized nature of the threat and an increasingly
    hostile thermodynamic environment as these storms continue
    southeast.

    ..Bentley/Bunting.. 05/19/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9E3hbUbryaubcfSbeoTN_tIv7yR1RrjTb1XY7jkQXGVlThGTzfJkjNxfkLDRi8yqiEg4Ow6Rs= oU0feN1VVy-CJyf-VY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

    LAT...LON 37348565 37378445 37158360 36608365 36388404 36278495
    36408551 36568568 36818580 37038581 37348565=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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