ACUS11 KWNS 182137
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182137=20
MIZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-182230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0816
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0437 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022

Areas affected...Eastern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238...

Valid 182137Z - 182230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238
continues.

SUMMARY...Primarily a damaging wind threat expected to persist into
the evening.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms has developed ahead of a compact
fast-moving mid-level shortwave trough. The environment continues to destabilize ahead of these storms with dewpoints in the low 50s and temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. The KDLH WSR-88D sampled this
line well as it moved through eastern Minnesota. Several
mesovorticies were observed with enhanced wind damage and perhaps a
weak TDS or two. Expect this damaging wind threat to continue as it
moves southeast for the next 1 to 2 hours before the threat wanes
once the boundary layer cools.

..Bentley.. 05/18/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4q8G3-UNaobUVtwwltCw_8N7PAi82FAMd5d_KdT7FWSGIjnVm33XZDBxkiC8qp3kP8IVS5WjX= c2TiS-rbK87HVp4-yk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON 45399400 45499449 45839482 45989433 46089371 46279299
46679239 47239178 47839131 47419038 46979012 46089004
45399019 45099214 45189322 45199337 45399400=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 182124
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182123=20
TXZ000-182330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0816
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0423 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023

Areas affected...portions of southwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 182123Z - 182330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to briefly severe thunderstorms producing strong
gusts and hail may persist another 1-2 hours before weakening.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered strong to briefly severe thunderstorms
have developed in low-level confluence amid moderate instability
late this afternoon. Vertical shear is very weak across the area and
will remain so through the evening. This activity will shift
generally east very slowly, within a narrow axis of instability
before boundary-layer inhibition increases. Modestly steep midlevel
lapse rates may support marginally severe hail, while a well-mixed boundary-layer contributing to steep low-level lapse rates, and weak
low-level flow will foster strong outflow winds. Convective
intensity should diminish this evening and with eastward extent.=20

Further south, addition convection has developed west of the Rio
Grande across northeast Mexico. This activity should weaken as it
approaches the river and perhaps crosses into Texas. However, poor
vertical shear and little forcing for ascent to maintain any organization/stronger intensity should preclude much severe
potential.

..Leitman/Smith.. 05/18/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7lHq8Y5OC3Vo9YQOSNyXyYe0GVbZhOi4XDEtmY9W433t-5g_jsVBOoIwrANpN7--Zhu2Yi_7Y= K5VUyyJIBhWCnE2BCg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 29710211 32790130 32980060 32890002 32529978 31869998
31410007 28370041 29410138 29710211=20


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