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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0809

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, May 18, 2022 03:18:49
    ACUS11 KWNS 180318
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 180318=20
    MOZ000-KSZ000-180415-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0809
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1018 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

    Areas affected...Eastern Kansas into western Missouri

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 237...

    Valid 180318Z - 180415Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 237
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The damaging wind threat is increasing along and south of
    I-70 in eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

    DISCUSSION...A mature bow has developed near Topeka and is moving east-south-eastward toward the western/southern suburbs of Kansas
    City. The 00Z TOP RAOB showed a very unstable airmass (~4000 J/kg
    MLCAPE) and effective shear around 45 knots with steep mid-level
    lapse rates. This is an environment favorable for damaging winds
    gusts with significant (75+ mph) wind gusts possible at the apex of
    the bow where a rear-inflow jet has started to develop.=20

    In addition, the 00Z RAOB and the 03Z EAX VWP show significant
    low-level turning which could support some mesovorticies capable of
    significant wind damage and/or a brief tornado.

    ..Bentley/Smith.. 05/18/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5xCBLjzbcifClXPumdYZ8Hy-vEdZ7hn-ahtN6N7QtN9HxNALbQa_r85GBQKP_H3MqA9q8k41l= Fv4E9tZiSJlESzTkvk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...

    LAT...LON 38929600 39049592 39179594 39259583 39289499 39229429
    39019403 38749407 38359439 38379495 38459574 38659622
    38809629 38929600=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, May 17, 2023 18:29:33
    ACUS11 KWNS 171829
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 171829=20
    OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-172030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0809
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0129 PM CDT Wed May 17 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of the southern High Plains

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 171829Z - 172030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm clusters will pose a severe hail
    and wind threat as they move east into parts of the southern High
    Plains. This threat is expected to remain sufficiently localized to
    preclude watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have initiated within the
    higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains over the past 60-90
    minutes. Radar trends have revealed most of this activity to be
    fairly short-lived, but a few more intense updraft pulses have been
    noted. The background westerly flow regime will help advect this
    activity off the higher terrain into the High Plains through the
    afternoon. Easterly flow at the surface is not only supporting
    marginal deep-layer shear, but is also sustaining dewpoints in the
    low 50s across the OK/TX Panhandles amid weak moisture advection.
    This is fostering downstream destabilization, which is supported by
    recent trends in visible imagery and RAP analyses. Consequently,
    there is some potential for thunderstorms to intensify as they
    migrate east. Thunderstorm clustering is already noted along the
    CO/NM border, and latest hi-res guidance supports the idea of one or
    more clusters meandering east through the late afternoon hours
    (though it remains unclear how quickly such clusters will become
    outflow dominant). An initial severe hail threat should transition
    to a damaging/severe wind threat as this occurs, but the coverage of
    the threat remains fairly uncertain.

    ..Moore/Grams.. 05/17/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7vCrWgh1LGyIUltg32fMjn2tgFyWOz0EM4_9CHpjDkY3JHkzvsyjR5LjrXVL-sf3-XKUfnUha= f1CcRGc_C-Z-MmML9Q$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 37190506 37460487 37670470 37810422 37860215 37720171
    36970146 36160161 35430215 35170275 35700516 36000550
    36730529 37190506=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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