ACUS11 KWNS 180113
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180113=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-180245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0807
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0813 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

Areas affected...Portions of Northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 180113Z - 180245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe wind threat may continue into the
evening.

DISCUSSION...Despite somewhat meager updraft cores, storms from near
Lubbock into southwest Oklahoma have been efficient wind producers
with multiple measured severe wind gusts. An average of the 00Z RAOB
from AMA and OUN is likely a good representation of the environment
near these storms with moderate instability and a very deep,
well-mixed boundary layer with a very dry sub-cloud layer.
Therefore, the environment is supportive for heat-burst type winds,
and the location of some of these measured wind gusts in relation to
the cores would also suggest these winds may be originating from the
anvil rather than from typical downburst processes.

Thunderstorms are expected to weaken with the loss of daytime
heating, but occasional heat-burst driven severe wind gusts remain
possible for the next few hours.

..Bentley/Smith.. 05/18/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4z6oH8MFCqXEphu9sBv-uh4TcYvqwRYoelNqnkJ_j__5kCBSyIII84-vhzFgpZHrJVgsg_74i= yeH4h5QztrnjavjAts$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 34339831 33559923 33230044 33480130 33820150 34150113
35030014 35509993 35669960 35579855 35199803 34649801
34339831=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 171659
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171659=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-171900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0807
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 AM CDT Wed May 17 2023

Areas affected...eastern FL Panhandle...far southern GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 171659Z - 171900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few thunderstorms will probably be capable of 45-55 mph
gusts. Pockets of wind damage will likely result from the stronger
wet microbursts.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite/radar mosaic imagery show a
developing cluster of thunderstorms along a sea-breeze front over
the FL Panhandle. To the east of this developing thunderstorm
cluster, mostly sunny skies will continue to promote strong heating
through the early afternoon and yield steepening low-level lapse
rates. K2J9 (Quincy Municipal Airport, FL) observed a 35-kt gust
with a thunderstorm at 1635 UTC.=20=20

The 12 UTC Tallahassee raob showed greater buoyancy compared to the Jacksonville raob (1100 vs. 400 J/kg MLCAPE). Given this observed
gradient in buoyancy with a similar observed PW value (1.5 inches),
expecting more vigorous thunderstorm development over the eastern FL
Panhandle through the early afternoon with weaker storms farther
east over North FL. The stronger water-loaded downdrafts will
probably be capable of at least strong and perhaps locally damaging
gusts (45-55 mph). Pockets of wind damage are the primary hazard
with this activity. Weak westerly tropospheric flow (per KTLH VAD
data) will favor slow eastward storm motions and a general motion
eastward of the evolving thunderstorm cluster.

..Smith/Grams.. 05/17/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6Spz9mvh3pfmC6m58P_sKbaNSlzu4_60j0Chng4pR7TuJy1bi61hre7GVSM763YU5Liex7YoM= IUzv6r0xXJy0nPWWoI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 30848437 31018333 30808305 30448287 29938302 30058416
30268452 30578456 30848437=20


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