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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0803

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, May 17, 2022 22:13:47
    ACUS11 KWNS 172213
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 172213=20
    KSZ000-NEZ000-180045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0803
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0513 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

    Areas affected...West-central and Northern Kansas...Southern
    Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 172213Z - 180045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to develop across parts of
    west-central and northern Kansas into southern Nebraska. Wind damage
    and isolated large hail are expected to be the primary threats. A
    severe thunderstorm watch appears likely across parts of the central
    Plains by early evening.

    DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Goodland, Kansas
    at 2210Z has a northeast-to-southwest line of semi-discrete
    thunderstorms located south-southeast of North Platte, near the
    Nebraska-Kansas state line. These storms are developing along the
    western edge of a moist and unstable airmass, where the RAP has
    MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. The Hastings WSR-88D VWP
    currently has 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range with some
    veering winds with height. This wind profile along low to mid-level
    lapse rates in the 8.0 to 9.0 C/km range, will be favorable for a
    severe threat over the next few hours. The HRRR currently is
    forecasting convective coverage to expand over the next hour as
    large-scale ascent increases due to a subtle shortwave trough moving
    in from the west. The threat is expected to develop eastward across
    parts of northern Kansas and southern Nebraska, where weather watch
    issuance may be needed over the next 1 to 2 hours.

    ..Broyles/Smith.. 05/17/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_u72uKQsQ1XcolMTxLdCVHZKX-MOOk2hsMZ7Ncb-9WpvZnMnn5fNGUc81sR1wXXYt-ouzUwjY= Nf69NIe5gcno5r7f1A$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

    LAT...LON 40709906 40929834 40789784 40359749 39939752 39039833
    38389935 38410004 38740046 39290043 39900001 40369953
    40709906=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, May 17, 2022 22:31:48
    ACUS11 KWNS 172231
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 172231=20
    KSZ000-NEZ000-180100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0803
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0531 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

    Areas affected...West-central and Northern Kansas...Southern
    Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 172231Z - 180100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to develop across parts of
    west-central and northern Kansas into southern Nebraska. Wind damage
    and isolated large hail are expected to be the primary threats. A
    severe thunderstorm watch appears likely across parts of the central
    Plains by early evening.

    DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Goodland, Kansas
    at 2210Z has a northeast-to-southwest line of semi-discrete
    thunderstorms located south-southeast of North Platte, near the
    Nebraska-Kansas state line. These storms are developing along the
    western edge of a moist and unstable airmass, where the RAP has
    MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. The Hastings WSR-88D VWP
    currently has 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range with some
    veering winds with height. This wind profile along with low to
    mid-level lapse rates in the 8.0 to 9.0 C/km range, will be
    favorable for a severe threat over the next few hours. The HRRR
    currently is forecasting convective coverage to expand over the next
    hour as large-scale ascent increases due to a subtle shortwave
    trough moving in from the west. The threat is expected to develop
    eastward across parts of northern Kansas and southern Nebraska,
    where weather watch issuance may be needed over the next 1 to 2
    hours.

    ..Broyles/Smith.. 05/17/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9lIRzx1-zSlhs3B5pEPWCLWtKJ_YAE7NpyTJuVO1VrARaSAT3hF3wNX12F70UNCKZZN2cKK0Z= K5HMLnsoS4P-oruJ00$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

    LAT...LON 40709906 40929834 40789784 40359749 39939752 39039833
    38389935 38410004 38740046 39290043 39900001 40369953
    40709906=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, May 16, 2023 18:58:38
    ACUS11 KWNS 161858
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 161857=20
    KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-162100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0803
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0157 PM CDT Tue May 16 2023

    Areas affected...Central High Plains

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 161857Z - 162100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will pose a severe
    wind/hail threat this afternoon across the central High Plains. This
    threat is expected to remain sufficiently localized to preclude
    watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible imagery shows deepening cumulus and
    a few lightning strikes across southeast WY into northeast CO ahead
    of a weak mid-level perturbation. Dewpoints across this region are
    falling through the low 50s into the upper 40s, indicative of
    diurnal mixing and erosion of mixed-layer inhibition. This trend
    will continue with robust/sustained convective initiation likely
    within the next 1-2 hours. Although buoyancy and deep-layer shear
    are somewhat marginal (MLCAPE values approaching 500 J/kg and
    effective bulk shear near 20-30 knots respectively), 25-30 knot
    storm-relative winds in the 0-3 km layer will likely support some
    cold pool balance/organization with more intense cells and clusters.
    This, coupled with lapse rates through this layer approaching 9
    C/km, will support the potential for strong to severe outflow winds.
    Cells in closer proximity to the mid-level shortwave perturbation
    (recently noted over northwest NE in water-vapor imagery) will
    likely experience augmented mid-level flow and may take on periods
    of supercellular characteristics with an attendant severe hail risk.
    In general, weak forcing for ascent is expected to limit storm
    coverage and the overall severe threat; watch issuance is not
    anticipated.

    ..Moore/Leitman.. 05/16/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8jIjyvbGuynyi5IaCLcGCnXaPF0xKehE2IcmKDQ2eHcQd1PAGnYh03ulQvkrN0Uc-2HJRctoS= zyjVuZk5wFXX2qEuYc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 38430300 38770353 41270492 41730516 42280534 42680534
    42890517 43290463 43360401 43220332 42550262 39840062
    39390060 38960066 38510092 38240171 38230239 38430300=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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