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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0801

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, May 17, 2022 20:00:19
    ACUS11 KWNS 172000
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 171959=20
    SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-172130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0801
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0259 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

    Areas affected...Central/eastern Wyoming into western South
    Dakota/Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 171959Z - 172130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A few marginal supercells capable of large hail and
    isolated wind damage are possible this afternoon. No watch is
    expected.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed within the higher terrain
    of Wyoming into the Black Hills vicinity. So far, the best radar
    presentation has been near Riverton with a couple of supercells
    showing modest potential for 1 inch hail on MRMS MESH. These storms
    exist within low 40s F dewpoints and their longevity is uncertain.
    Farther east, dewpoints are in the mid/upper 40s F. As storms mature
    in eastern Wyoming and near the Black Hills, 40-45 kts of effective
    shear should also promote supercell structures. Mid-level lapse
    rates are near 8 C/km per morning observed soundings in the region.
    Large hail and isolated wind damage are possible. The overall lack
    of low-level moisture should keep the threat marginal. No watch is
    expected.

    ..Wendt/Grams.. 05/17/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_TDggAFMyW__fXCN6TXT1u-6P723SbGEKnh_HmIehCGYKhHighZ4ADbAFXJRgRzwhYjGLwTUL= -S6lLNTQOT8RxZLg7o$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...RIW...

    LAT...LON 43700880 44160808 44790406 44900316 44830278 44490242
    43700230 42770281 42560361 42440470 42510563 42800778
    43000849 43110866 43700880=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, May 16, 2023 17:14:39
    ACUS11 KWNS 161714
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 161714=20
    ALZ000-MSZ000-161915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0801
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1214 PM CDT Tue May 16 2023

    Areas affected...Eastern Mississippi to western Alabama

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 161714Z - 161915Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may produce sporadic
    damaging winds through the afternoon across eastern Mississippi into
    western and central Alabama. Watch issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, isolated thunderstorms have
    developed within a pocket of warm (mid 80s) surface temperatures
    where low-level parcels are reaching their convective temperatures
    and inhibition is negligible. Recent RAP analyses estimate MLCAPE
    values are approaching 1500 J/kg over eastern MS/western AL, but
    deep-layer shear appears very limited given 20-25 knots of flow in
    the 6-8 km layer. Consequently, storm modes will remain fairly
    disorganized as convection migrates east/northeast towards western
    and central AL though the afternoon. However, continued daytime
    heating will allow dewpoint depressions to climb to 15-20 F with
    PWAT values on the order of 1.75 inches. These thermodynamic
    characteristics should be conducive for wet downbursts capable of
    sporadic damaging winds, and perhaps marginally severe hail with the
    more intense updraft pulses. Latest runs of the HRRR support this
    idea with a transient signal for 40-45 knot gusts over east MS/AL
    this afternoon. Given the localized and transient nature of the
    threat, watch issuance is not expected.

    ..Moore/Leitman.. 05/16/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_fN1F2YViFoTbDOJESaCxtck1hBCI2ecQCdfJwgBJ6j86MThWXNs1_vy5AQhNDavl5ZbtSqXr= mpMVFJByt_R4nol4Gc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...

    LAT...LON 32118958 32468939 33008879 33648795 34068703 34048637
    33928586 33558562 33138559 32658571 32248590 31968610
    31758667 31728753 31708822 31688890 31748922 31838950
    32118958=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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