• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0800

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, May 17, 2022 18:28:46
    ACUS11 KWNS 171828
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 171828=20
    IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-172030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0800
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0128 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

    Areas affected...Far East-Central NE...Southwest IA...Far Northwest
    MO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 171828Z - 172030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated hail and damaging wind gusts possible during the
    next several hours.

    DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery has shown an increase in
    southeasterly storm motion within the cluster of storms over far
    northeast NE (about 30-35 miles west-northwest of TQE). This cluster
    is located within the effective warm frontal zone that extends from
    a surface low over central NE southeastward into southern IA.
    Preceding convection and resulting outflow has resulted in a
    somewhat complex frontal structure across the region, but the
    general expectation is for the warm front to lift northeastward as
    moisture advection into the region persists. As it does, increased
    moisture and buoyancy will likely result in perseverance of the
    ongoing line, with some strengthening likely as well. Storm motion
    is expected to remain generally southeasterly, although likely with
    a more southerly component into the greater instability with time.=20

    Low-level stability currently in place suggest the primary threat in
    the near-term is large hail, although the more favorable low-level thermodynamics anticipated downstream should result in an isolated
    wind-damage risk as well. Overall severe coverage remains uncertain,
    but observational trends will be monitored closely.

    ..Mosier/Grams.. 05/17/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5SBcJrf4sPsekG3D3W7rErE3Jj4xx3jrblBYZarDMTa5kiOvByx-gOnaoVdG28ZVlqdymLRXN= sdDYIOBKtX5raYRkh0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...

    LAT...LON 42079697 42209514 41449386 40149400 40369582 40909687
    42079697=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, May 16, 2023 15:44:08
    ACUS11 KWNS 161544
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 161543=20
    VAZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-161745-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0800
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1043 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023

    Areas affected...Central/Eastern KY...Middle TN

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 161543Z - 161745Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to
    increase over the next few hours as the developing line of storms
    continues into central KY and northern middle TN. Damaging wind
    gusts are expected, with some chance for isolated hail and a brief
    tornado as well.

    DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar imagery has shown an increase in reflectivity over the past hour or so near a surface low moving
    northeastward along the IN/KY border vicinity. The air mass ahead of
    the low (and the attendant cold front stretching back southwestward
    from the low) is characterized by temperatures in the mid to upper
    70s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Mid-level lapse rates
    over the region are not overly steep, but the moderate buoyancy is
    still anticipated as temperatures warm into the low to mid 80s.
    Northern extent of the buoyancy (and attendant severe risk) will be
    confined by the ongoing showers and embedded thunderstorms over the
    middle OH Valley.

    Expectation is for the developing line of storms to continue
    strengthening as they progress into the destabilizing air mass
    downstream. Deep-layer flow is sufficient for some maturation into
    an organized convective line capable of producing damaging gusts.
    Some hail is also possible, particularly if an cell mergers occur.
    The tornado risk appears low, given the veered low-level flow, but
    still non-zero, with some potential for embedded meso vorticies.
    Highest tornado potential would likely be on the northern end of the
    line, where slightly backed low-level is more probable and some
    interaction with preceding storm outflow is possible.

    ..Mosier/Leitman.. 05/16/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6HDBCcBI5Z8cg57Nw_vtAOJFkNqyrlmCqWQt3bFuSkYiGBtc_fg6tItvY1LMM2PAWWSMSKiP8= Gu8dzNOs3V-PcwvexQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...

    LAT...LON 37318742 38018628 38158538 37998386 37408334 36718356
    36068410 35918492 35978577 36168658 36768749 37318742=20


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