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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0795

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, May 16, 2022 22:43:41
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    ACUS11 KWNS 162243
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 162243=20
    MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-162345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0795
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0543 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of the Northeast

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 231...

    Valid 162243Z - 162345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 231
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A damaging wind threat and isolated tornado threat
    continues.

    DISCUSSION...Damaging wind gusts have become more sporadic along the
    squall line moving through the Northeast. However, a damaging wind
    gust threat remains in individual points in the line where bowing
    segments are occurring. Additionally, over the past hour, there have
    been more areas of low-level rotation along the line and in the
    cells developing ahead of the line. Low-level winds are backed in
    this region with a strengthening low-level jet, and the KGYX VWP
    shows around 200 m2/s2 of 0-1 SRH. Therefore, a brief tornado or two
    is possible over the next 1 to 2 hours, especially across northern
    Vermont and New Hampshire where surface winds are backed.

    ..Bentley.. 05/16/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!59sMFVJht1eEy01Jcs7OhU5OdaFsEW9E1toMMbb9WVwqKgeniP44sJcRXO5HVznKUgnMv6veU= V570SQdTy4h5ySvfJQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...

    LAT...LON 44497312 45017272 45177136 44037075 42307090 41717119
    41437235 41607283 42157285 42847255 43587281 44497312=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, May 14, 2023 22:47:22
    ACUS11 KWNS 142247
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142247=20
    ILZ000-MOZ000-150015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0795
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0547 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023

    Areas affected...Eastern MO and south-central IL

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 224...

    Valid 142247Z - 150015Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 224
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk of large hail and damaging gusts continues across
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch 224 this evening. The damaging-wind risk
    should continue increasing during the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...During the last hour or so, regional radar data shows a
    gradual mode transition from splitting supercells (right-dominant)
    to increasingly organized clusters. Given mostly straight hodographs
    per VWP data (favoring continued cell splitting) and increasing
    convective outflow, localized upscale growth should continue during
    the next few hours. In the meantime, isolated large hail and locally
    damaging gusts remain possible with the more-separated supercell
    structures; however, the damaging-wind risk is becoming an
    increasing concern this evening. This should especially be the case
    for parts of far east-central MO into south-central IL -- where
    surface confluence is maximized and low-level lapse rates have
    diurnally steepened amid lower 70s boundary-layer dewpoints.

    ..Weinman.. 05/14/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!98ocqHLfUNV4ZVPyxIsxdQKc6c1_iJqNvNRFFTUcDJ3UZdiOUDSa3k7Ds9KsuRIa_dN-Qg-aI= pdGWxXfI_MmOwMz01U$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 37899027 38209071 38449123 38569171 38849187 39199192
    39709170 39949131 40049070 39979008 39708919 39418863
    39098832 38748819 38358823 37998829 37688870 37598927
    37638985 37899027=20


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