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ACUS11 KWNS 162224
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162223=20
PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-162330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0794
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0523 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022

Areas affected...northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 162223Z - 162330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with the
storm cluster moving off of Lake Erie.

DISCUSSION...A fast moving cluster of storms developed earlier today
across eastern Michigan and is now crossing Lake Erie. The
environment ahead of these storms is very deeply mixed with at least
weak buoyancy. Therefore, some stronger mid-level flow (~50 knots at
3-4 km per CLE VWP) may mix toward the surface with this
thunderstorm activity. Recently, the Akron, Ohio ASOS gusted to 43
knots as thunderstorms moved through the region, showing what the
environment is capable of. The cluster over Lake Michigan is more
organized and moving faster than the storms to the south. Therefore,
expect a threat for isolated damaging wind gusts for the next 1 to 2
hours before the threat wanes as the boundary layer cools later this
evening.

..Bentley/Hart.. 05/16/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!50S7zs7AopsZymqSivyA7RbivTR_EXqUZaoswqSZR90loKJp2wpqAcsn4zkNG8k8qjcB8E_Bl= x7kCgM4UU-hBqmK51w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 41488173 41858119 42188017 42207973 41967957 41437967
41028022 40888074 40928132 40958138 41488173=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 141744
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141743=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-142015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0794
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023

Areas affected...northern into eastern Missouri and southwest
Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 141743Z - 142015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop over northern Missouri, and
may pose a damaging wind and marginal hail threat as they progress east/southeastward toward the Mississippi River and into western
Illinois.

DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows towering cumulus and deepening
convection now over northern MO, near a weak boundary. This boundary
becomes less defines farther east into IL, but a minor differential
heating zone does exist.

While winds aloft are not very strong, heating and ample moisture
will continue to destabilize the region. Conditions appear favorable
for a cluster of storms to form near the stronger part of the front
over northern MO, and hodographs will favor and east/southeastward
storm motion. Given the favorable time of day with steepening
low-level lapse rates and precipitable water near 1.50", at least
isolated severe gust potential appears likely, with marginal hail in
some of the stronger cores as well.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 05/14/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8fjz_Ogr2QEgjQEiqkDa1PTBKRXEDYJVYWixF2c0TJg8NQ5b4yYrtlWZYWrJ55Qm_UDRORKgY= l2XEqKnV9uYCbUWecE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...EAX...

LAT...LON 39199353 39439369 39719362 39979306 40119254 39919093
38978922 38498902 38218906 37798931 37798967 38399110
38759201 38949266 39099327 39199353=20


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