• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0791

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, May 16, 2022 21:38:10
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    ACUS11 KWNS 162138
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 162137=20
    NJZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-162230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0791
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0437 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of the DelMarVa

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230...

    Valid 162137Z - 162230Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A well-developed supercell is likely to persist across the
    DelMarVa to the Atlantic Ocean

    DISCUSSION...A supercell which developed west of DC has produced
    numerous reports of large hail (up to golf ball size) and damaging
    winds. MRMS MESH continues to show 1.75 to 2 inch hail with this
    storm and WSR-88D sampled wind gusts over 60 knots. Temperatures are
    in the low 80s ahead of this storm with dewpoints in the mid 60s.
    This yields over 1500 J/kg MLCAPE with over 50 knots of effective
    shear per KDOX VWP. Therefore, this storm will likely persist to the
    Atlantic coast with a continued threat for large hail, damaging
    winds, and potentially a tornado.

    ..Bentley.. 05/16/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4dAUzXTvhIAC-5OfTkcXtq70C2ze-sDmUbyVTdw0vV8SV9uAOtI9wTXdsxpXHN0IxuAeXfnVG= XRakIvJiHcYO-jXKwQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...

    LAT...LON 38977554 38987500 38857474 38637478 38257502 38247539
    38397607 38497639 38637639 38867627 38977554=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, May 13, 2023 23:25:12
    ACUS11 KWNS 132325
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132324=20
    IAZ000-140030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0791
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0624 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023

    Areas affected...Parts Iowa

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 223...

    Valid 132324Z - 140030Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 223 continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe risk is gradually diminishing across Tornado
    Watch 223, though an additional tornado or two is possible across
    parts of south-central and perhaps northwest IA during the next hour
    or so.

    DISCUSSION...Over south-central IA, earlier diurnal heating of a
    moist boundary layer (lower 70s surface dewpoints) has yielded a
    small pocket of favorable surface-based instability -- where MLCAPE
    is slightly higher (around 1000 J/kg). This surface-based inflow,
    combined with backed surface winds beneath weakly veering flow aloft
    (around 130 m2/s2 0-1km SRH per DMX VWP), could support an
    additional brief supercell tornado or two during the next hour or
    so. Farther north in northwest IA, enhanced background vorticity
    amid ongoing shallow supercell structures could also support an
    additional brief tornado or two before nocturnal static stability
    increases.

    ..Weinman.. 05/13/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_dbNefNA-VtMOA1QoRnXT-V-DpndPkm090QCQ3ZTKHLvz3825mlBoOxg23janiU-h8VAGMrn0= 3LinDn5nqdMotADKmo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...

    LAT...LON 40909293 41009333 41329350 41609344 41739327 41709292
    41369247 41069229 40899241 40909293=20


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