• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0789

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, May 16, 2022 20:36:10
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    ACUS11 KWNS 162036
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 162035=20
    NMZ000-162230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0789
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0335 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022

    Areas affected...Central/eastern New Mexico

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 162035Z - 162230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Deepening cumulus and a couple thunderstorms have
    developed along the higher terrain in central New Mexico. Initially
    discrete storms may produce large hail. With time, upscale growth is
    expected into one or more clusters. A watch will probably be needed
    as confidence in where storms will organize increases.

    DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough apparent in water vapor imagery is
    now moving northeast into the Four Corners. Surface low pressure
    west of the north of the Mogollon Rim is helping to drive moist
    upslope flow into the higher terrain from the Sacramento to Sangre
    de Cristo Mountains. A supercell is evident on KFDX radar imagery
    within the Sacramento Mountains. This storm has moved very slowly
    east due to the MLCIN still within the eastern plains. With
    continued heating and subtle influence from the shortwave trough,
    additional storm development is likely later this afternoon. Initial development will likely be supercellular with around 45 kts of
    effective shear across the terrain. Large hail is possible with
    initially discrete storms. Large temperature-dewpoint spreads will
    mean rapid cold pool production and interaction between storms.
    Guidance continues to show upscale growth of a cluster or two that
    will move east into greater low-level moisture. The primary hazards
    will then become damaging winds as this occurs. Cold pool
    organization may be sufficient to allow eastward propagation through
    at least weak MLCIN. A watch will probably be needed later this
    afternoon as confidence increases with regard to where cold pool
    organization will occur.

    ..Wendt/Grams.. 05/16/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5ENbND6GzXRP7KwLGoCb4QuCKwLh9LeRIw6jO-EjXrYpCLDzn4CW7T7qcq1fx9rcceyxAFzsa= wax7gqThnO8o7-H3f8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

    LAT...LON 34430611 35410643 36600564 36920459 36060377 33730370
    33060438 32850512 32930552 34430611=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, May 13, 2023 20:32:45
    ACUS11 KWNS 132032
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132031=20
    IAZ000-MOZ000-132230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0789
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0331 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023

    Areas affected...Central to southeast Iowa

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 223...

    Valid 132031Z - 132230Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 223 continues.

    SUMMARY...The tornado threat continues across parts of WW 223.
    Confidence in the severe threat is highest across parts of
    central/northwest IA as well as south-central/southeast IA for the
    next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery over the past couple of hours
    has shown a broken band of discrete convection across northwest IA
    as well as more discrete convection across central/southeast IA.
    Despite a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment for
    supercells (MLCAPE over 1000 J/kg and 40-50 knots of effective bulk
    shear per latest RAP analyses), convection thus far appears to not
    be fully realizing the available environment based on the relatively
    short lifespan of individual cells and rather anemic appearance of
    most convection in IR imagery. This is likely due to fairly weak
    low-level forcing for ascent with a notable diminishment of cumulus
    depth and westward retrograde of the warm front noted in surface obs
    across central IA. Despite this limitation, a few brief tornadoes
    have been reported since 18 UTC, and the KDMX VWP continues to
    sample 0-1 km SHR on the order of 100-150 m2/s2. Given the
    aforementioned environmental characteristics, a conditional tornado
    threat continues across the entire watch area.=20

    Over the next couple of hours, a relatively higher severe threat
    will likely be focused within two corridors to the northwest and
    southeast of the Des Moines area. Within these corridors, visible
    satellite imagery has shown persistent agitated cumulus and multiple
    attempts at more robust convection. This supports recent RAP
    analyses that depict locally enhanced low-level convergence and
    ambient vorticity along the frontal boundary that may be conducive
    for tornadogenesis with any stronger updraft. Recent hi-res guidance
    continues to hint that the greatest potential for long-lived
    tornadic supercells resides across south-central IA, which matches environmental trends (higher buoyancy and stronger baroclinicity
    along the warm front) and recent radar/satellite observations.

    ..Moore.. 05/13/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9E2ucEEtgU44rKwakTeWP048DxG7AYLDqvm5cL0tiZgOK6Rv_EDucyGiuPAbJH4Ygh5zKY4OS= sHRw8F7FS6j2IqTNg4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...FSD...

    LAT...LON 41489446 41689472 42009506 42309534 42639551 42809541
    42899506 42779454 42389404 41949339 41739279 41559216
    41369180 41089158 40679172 40589204 40599254 40769304
    40979355 41079378 41489446=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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