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ACUS11 KWNS 161844
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161843=20
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-162015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0787
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022

Areas affected...Eastern NY...Far Eastern PA...Northern NJ

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 226...227...229...

Valid 161843Z - 162015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 226, 227,
229 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts and large hail will
persist for at least the next several hours across eastern NY, far
eastern PA, and northern NJ.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows an expansive convective
line extending from just east of Lake Ontario southward into
northeast PA and then back southwestward across far eastern PA. Air
mass downstream of this line has warmed into the upper 70s and low
80s. Mesoanalysis estimates 0-3 km lapse rates over 7.5 deg C per km
across much of this region. Linear convective structure coupled with
moderate buoyancy and steep low-level lapse rates suggests the
threat for damaging wind gusts will persist with this line as it
moves eastward this afternoon.

Cellular development ahead of the line will likely continue this
afternoon as well. These storms could produce large hail and/or
damaging wind gusts, particularly as a result of updraft
augmentation due to interaction with the approaching line.

..Mosier.. 05/16/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6wWfzx7bgvqbEX-W4-UolTihYTrwV4JOVK9mDcDT3FnmVFzjBTsUv6ZW0uDP-DOG8PZGVHiha= 9hDGbYDPjMG5GGGcbQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...

LAT...LON 42387563 43417601 44067517 43477390 42127356 40407470
40377616 41437560 42387563=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 131814
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131813=20
VAZ000-NCZ000-132145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0787
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023

Areas affected...central and southern Virginia into northern North
Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 131813Z - 132145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms are expected to develop over the next few
hours across central into south-central Virginia, and into northern
North Carolina. Marginally severe hail or wind gusts will be
possible.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a cold front drifting south
across northern VA and southern MD, with a weak low over central VA.
A subtle lee trough also extends southwestward from the low, near
the low-level lapse rate plume.

Visible imagery indicates areas of heating will persist this
afternoon, with gradual destabilization. Substantial towering CU are
developing near and south of the low, and this will be a likely
initiation point especially as the cold front continues south.=20

A very moist air mass is in place with a plume of 1.50 to 1.75"
total precipitable water, and this will likely aid moist downdraft
potential during the peak heating hours. In addition, modest
midlevel winds out of the west/northwest with around 30 kt effective
shear may result in a few cells capable of marginal hail, with
motions of 15-20 kt to the southeast.

..Jewell/Mosier.. 05/13/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4hyaBh66dHo-EiEe7vdE-iAl1dcQW02Ep6QreYlUhWEO6a1IPswaLt3sKdn5ZZDPSZKrsrAwn= 4hkISxG7YG4pJQDcYo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON 37267936 37807874 37867860 37917815 38107764 38107701
37887680 36667747 36327778 36057840 36017987 36288015
36748002 36937968 37267936=20


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