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ACUS11 KWNS 161823
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161823=20
DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-162030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0786
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022

Areas affected...Northeast VA...Much of MD...Delmarva Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 161823Z - 162030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage and intensity is
anticipated this afternoon. The strongest of these storms will be
capable of damaging wind gusts and hail, and a watch will likely be
needed to cover these hazards.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery has shown decreasing cloud
cover over the past hour or so, as the preceding area of showers and thunderstorms moves quickly northeastward. Temperatures are warming
quickly as skies clear, with recent observations showing upper
70s/low 80s in northern VA. This warming trend is expected to
continue, with the air mass further destabilizing as it does. Ascent
attendant to the approaching shortwave coupled with broad low-level
confluence along and ahead of the cold front should result in
thunderstorm development as convective inhibition decreases this
afternoon.=20

Combination of moderate buoyancy and shear across the region will
support robust updrafts and likely a few supercells if the mode can
remain discrete. Steep low-level lapse rates favor strong outflow
with any robust storms. Hail also appears likely given the amount of
buoyancy expected in place. Observational trends will be monitored
closely and a watch will likely be needed across portions of the
region this afternoon.

..Mosier/Grams.. 05/16/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5eUAxMS0g2xSSzsgtTUAIwUilyJU5GMw85fdY6ys9AQjRPHCPXo6__HMVT96ye9etK88rNzNS= U4GnhbwAAkNlrVOQP4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON 38987823 39307787 39557723 39537614 39197547 38777542
38287582 37937679 37827754 37807821 38147881 38987823=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 131701
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131701=20
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-MNZ000-131900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0786
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023

Areas affected...Iowa into far northeast Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 131701Z - 131900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...T-storm coverage and intensity is expected during the
18-20 UTC period across Iowa into far northeast Missouri. These
storms will likely pose a risk for large hail, severe winds, and a
few tornadoes. A watch will likely be needed to address this
concern.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations depict a warm front draped
from northeast IA southeastward into far northeast MO. On the cool
side of this boundary, eroding cloud cover has allowed for
temperatures to begin warming into the low to mid 70s with further heating/destabilization expected through mid afternoon as clouds
continue to slowly clear amid weak subsidence noted in low-level
water-vapor imagery. Modified observed and forecast soundings across
central to eastern IA suggest that while buoyancy profiles remain
somewhat modest, the low-level warming is eroding mixed-layer
inhibition. Initial convective initiation along the warm front,
where mesoscale lift and diurnal warming is greatest, has been noted
south of Des Moines over the past 20 minutes, lending credence to
recent CAM solutions that hint at more widespread convective
initiation within the next 2-3 hours.=20

As thunderstorms develop, storm motions and deep-layer shear vectors
orthogonal to the warm front should support initially discrete storm
modes. VWP observations from KDMX (to the north of the front where
low-level flow is backed to the southeast) show sufficient low-level
curvature for around 100-150 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. Forecast soundings
hint that strong shear in the 1-6 km layer will favor elongated
hodographs favorable for splitting supercells. Consequently,
organized convection appears likely with an attendant large hail,
severe wind, and tornado threat. The quality of destabilization (and subsequently the severe threat) becomes less certain with
east/northeast extent; however, a watch will likely be needed to
address the developing severe threat.

..Moore/Mosier.. 05/13/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_NMAzjRJj3ZVRgrnxAcYU2fN6ZNgOi-HE5GTbXxfiJOZIT60xkUvqayhB0HN12EKcxGGiE0Kg= AtJYZPBF1DzZUPsB8s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON 41009087 40519106 40079137 39849204 39819267 40009300
40419344 40909397 41439457 41969533 42359590 42589642
42809651 43239639 43549609 43729567 43789530 43669446
42449215 41519101 41009087=20


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