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ACUS11 KWNS 161649
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161648=20
MAZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-161815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0784
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022

Areas affected...Eastern NY...Much of VT...Southern
NH...Western/Central MA...CT

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 227...

Valid 161648Z - 161815Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 227
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts
remain possible across the region this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Temperatures have warmed into the mid 70s to lower 80s
across the region, resulting in air mass destabilization. Recent
mesoanalysis indicates little to no convective inhibition remains
over the region. The cold front is currently well west of the
region, but increasing large-scale forcing for ascent within the
broad warm-air advection regime has been enough to initiate
thunderstorms. Enough buoyancy and shear are in place to support
supercells capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated hail, with
hail most likely during initial/early updraft development.

..Mosier/Grams.. 05/16/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4jYG2dCZV82_AnrUgBuHYBLnijOTqPp4ag4i5Jy3DfCXjX0vlEEenjgEEThLrI2oxC0GlRY_1= rxwlnZfC-kVJTGLg1A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...

LAT...LON 42787485 44037465 44487360 44277259 43787202 42927180
41747194 41167318 41407425 42787485=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 130603
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130602=20
TXZ000-130700-

Mesoscale Discussion 0784
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CDT Sat May 13 2023

Areas affected...Portions of south-central to coastal TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 220...

Valid 130602Z - 130700Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 220
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for mainly strong to damaging winds
should continue in the short term. Additional watch issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A loosely organized band of thunderstorms will continue
to move across and east of the San Antonio metro area early this
morning. While a moderately unstable airmass is present downstream
of this ongoing activity, low/mid-level winds remain fairly weak per
recent VWP estimates from KEWX. Some evidence of a rear-inflow jet
is evident from recent radar velocity data, and strong/gusty winds
around 50-60 mph may still occur on a localized basis. But, the
potential for a more substantial severe wind threat to the east of
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 220 appears limited at this time, and
additional watch issuance is not expected this morning.

..Gleason/Hart.. 05/13/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5SEH0jy3M9duZh-0CEGBHTsg_isRmqyLhvtOJVp6sESVI7Qq0p0wlAJ-wFXY2ekYNWoJevru1= 1UsnMBrX0C8lEVTW2s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 28479829 28589869 29299882 30029864 30329816 30309660
29669652 29199665 28589779 28479829=20


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