• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0783

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, May 16, 2022 16:38:40
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    ACUS11 KWNS 161638
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 161637=20
    VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-161830-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0783
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1137 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022

    Areas affected...Far Southern WV...Western/Southern
    VA...Western/Central NC

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 161637Z - 161830Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this
    afternoon. Some strong to severe storms are possible, with damaging
    wind gusts as the primary hazard.

    DISCUSSION...Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s across much
    of western and central NC, with slightly lower temperatures farther
    north in western/south-central VA and adjacent far southern WV.
    Dewpoints range from the mid 60s across central NC into the mid 50s
    across southern VA. Recent mesoanalysis indicates that these
    thermodynamic conditions have eroded any convective inhibition
    across the region. While the strongest forcing for ascent will be
    displaced north, enough ascent is still expected across the region
    along and ahead of the cold front to promote thunderstorm
    development. As a result, thunderstorm coverage is expected to
    gradually increase over the next few hours.

    While the stronger mid to upper flow will be displaced north, there
    is still enough buoyancy in place to support robust updrafts.
    Damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe hazard, but some hail
    is also possible, particularly over south-central and southeast VA
    where some modest mid-level flow will be in place.

    ..Mosier/Grams.. 05/16/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-cQmm44RHIum9rCoFRrR6lNxVJF4sUPuBWNHkGt09M0fafct0cmZ39VK631s2ZQZ8zHSA_hb5= e-Ee82hydspoLQsLSY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...

    LAT...LON 35738221 37018135 37888003 37277736 35157870 35188093
    35738221=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, May 13, 2023 03:37:35
    ACUS11 KWNS 130337
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 130337=20
    TXZ000-130500-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0783
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1037 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

    Areas affected...Deep south Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 130337Z - 130500Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms could spread across deep south Texas
    over the next several hours. Hail/wind are the primary risks.

    DISCUSSION...Low-latitude short-wave trough is ejecting across
    northern Mexico toward deep south TX. As a result, modest 500mb
    flow, on the order of 35kt, extends toward the lower Rio Grande
    Valley along the south side of the short wave. In response, 30kt
    850mb southeasterly flow is noted across the western Gulf Basin into south-central TX where low-level moisture is quite high and
    instability is strong. 00z soundings from CRP and BRO exhibit MUCAPE
    in excess of 4000 J/kg with steep mid-level lapse rates. Convection
    that developed over the higher terrain west of the international
    border is slowly propagating toward the lower Rio Grande Valley.
    This activity is slow moving but could eventually spread east of the
    border as weak inhibition exists across this region. Severe
    hail/wind may accompany this activity and a watch is currently being considered.

    ..Darrow/Thompson.. 05/13/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7KKFHjY2ONuZXlDFK-WrBXxLnP6Uv44IPJ8G67-0w7Acjh5ycaW6bRTtbiP_GvyFn0EcVVdoc= H7QRQ9PaoIHT2yLkjM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

    LAT...LON 26019745 26079859 27589934 27619800 26019745=20


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