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ACUS11 KWNS 161344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161344=20
PAZ000-161515-

Mesoscale Discussion 0780
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0844 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022

Areas affected...Central PA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 225...

Valid 161344Z - 161515Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 225
continues.

SUMMARY...Potential for damaging wind gusts is increasing across
central PA.

DISCUSSION...A cold front extends from western NY southward through
central PA, western MD, and the far eastern WV Panhandle into
western WV. Showers and thunderstorms exist along and ahead of this
front, with some strengthening recently noted across central PA. The
air mass downstream is not overly buoyant at the moment, but
continued diurnal heating should allow more destabilization over the
next few hours, particularly in areas where temperatures reach the
70s. Moderate mid to upper level flow will help support 40-45 kt of
deep-layer vertical shear, which could help organize updrafts and
lead to stronger storms than the instability would suggest. Primary
risk with any more robust storms is be damaging wind gusts.

..Mosier/Grams.. 05/16/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7dGZ12mYXsLABePVZ6rIxn8xez0y8ZqRFmXeymgdCCDbxnsZomLNC4Bn33KwYk__WSlT6k-ee= ANF3pM-9rLzte_ljPs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...

LAT...LON 40057881 41577865 41867833 41927778 41587695 40467644
39867677 39777743 39797829 39917868 40057881=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 130029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130029=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-130230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0780
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0729 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

Areas affected...Parts of eastern Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 218...

Valid 130029Z - 130230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 218
continues.

SUMMARY...Risk of large hail and damaging winds should continue
increasing across parts of eastern Kansas during the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Regional VWP data indicates around 40-50 kt of 0-6 km
shear oriented perpendicular to a north-south-oriented dryline over
eastern KS -- supporting discrete/semi-discrete supercell
structures. With generally weak forcing for ascent, these updrafts
were initially narrow, though recent cell mergers/congealed cold
pools have yielded wider updrafts and a corresponding uptick in
severe-risk. Steep deep-layer lapse rates and the continued
semi-discrete mode should favor large hail (up to 2 inches) and
locally damaging gusts. However, some increase in the low-level jet
over the next few hours could also yield slightly higher SRH, and a
tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

..Weinman.. 05/13/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9iN6offWAzpE-A3zFmbpoV5bmynXUOC7XeSW2Tjee0mMq7cP-XpoBgZCg75XpkARG-RhB4MfQ= eYy83nfwUAqlHxjSqw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 37079687 37539657 38449614 38829602 39189583 39269558
39199511 39049488 37909510 37079553 36959593 36929668
37079687=20


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