• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0776

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, May 15, 2022 22:47:06
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    ACUS11 KWNS 152246
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 152246=20
    OKZ000-160015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0776
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0546 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

    Areas affected...South-central into east-central/southeast OK

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 221...

    Valid 152246Z - 160015Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 221
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Storms moving southward across east-central OK will pose a
    threat for isolated very large hail through 00Z. One or more
    clusters may develop with time, which would pose an increased
    damaging wind risk.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple discrete supercells have developed along a southward-moving outflow boundary near the I-40 corridor of eastern
    OK. The thermodynamic environment is quite favorable for hail, with
    steep midlevel lapse rates and strong buoyancy noted on 18Z OUN/LZK
    soundings and recent objective mesoanalyses. 2.5" diameter hail was
    recently reported in Okfuskee County, and very large hail will
    continue to be possible with any sustained discrete cells into the
    evening. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for supercells, and
    a tornado or two cannot be ruled out, as long as cells remain rooted
    near the outflow boundary. Locally severe wind gusts will also be
    possible with these supercells.=20

    With time, additional development is possible within a growing
    cumulus field to the southwest that extends into Garvin County. Some
    upscale growth is possible with time due to storm mergers and
    consolidating outflows, which could potentially pose an increasing
    severe-wind risk as convection spreads into south-central/southeast
    OK.

    ..Dean.. 05/15/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9Ep0mRyNX1Xyb5pYeCyMvAQuXHFaoU9ohRQ70DToQR6ItgEJRMO-hHF6bxbjPbhzyCDo4dyN9= yvFxBNrqTtykXO8kss$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...OUN...

    LAT...LON 35459704 35629578 35629489 35609466 35399447 34519471
    34289596 34169717 35199717 35459704=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, May 12, 2023 20:58:02
    ACUS11 KWNS 122057
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 122057=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-122300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0776
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0357 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

    Areas affected...Eastern Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 122057Z - 122300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated, but intense, thunderstorms are possible across
    eastern Kansas within the next few hours. Storm coverage remains
    uncertain, but trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery across eastern KS shows a
    deepening trend of cumulus congestus along a dryline over the past
    hour. A 19 UTC sounding from TOP shows residual capping in place
    over the region, and forcing for ascent along this portion of the
    boundary remains somewhat weaker given some displacement from
    stronger synoptic ascent to the north. Additional daytime heating
    over the next couple of hours should allow temperatures to warm
    further into the mid 80s, combined with adequate residence time
    within the dryline circulation based on the TOP wind profile, may be
    sufficient for isolated convection. While the number of storms
    remains uncertain, the environment is characterized by strong
    buoyancy (MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg) and favorable deep-layer shear for
    organized supercells with an attendant risk of large hail and severe
    winds (and perhaps a tornado closer to the I-70 corridor where
    low-level flow is more backed to the southeast compared to locations
    further south). Trends will continue to be monitored for
    thunderstorm initiation, and a watch may be needed.

    ..Moore/Mosier.. 05/12/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8qWKY5HqJhfZ68g4ZHA0wHk84Ze6hNGJQaDrzifXZLdlZw8fM5ezZkE5RvJJ648HgbEvDlVSv= eV2Q44RCBKnyHryliY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

    LAT...LON 37139712 37899669 38959638 39019640 39309574 39269520
    38929476 38449466 37729477 37209518 36959569 36919647
    36929687 37139712=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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