• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0774

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, May 15, 2022 20:49:49
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    ACUS11 KWNS 152049
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 152049=20
    IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-152245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0774
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0349 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

    Areas affected...Northeastern Oregon...southeastern
    Washington...central Idaho

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 152049Z - 152245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are expected to initiate in the next few hours.
    Some supercell structures are possible with a threat for damaging
    winds and large hail. A low-end tornado threat is also apparent.
    Trends will be monitored for a possible watch.

    DISCUSSION...Large-scale ascent continues to increase within the
    Northwest as an upper-level trough pivots into British Columbia.
    Visible satellite shows cumulus developing and deepening along and
    east of the Oregon Cascades. Moisture remains limited across the
    region with low 40s F in southern Oregon and 50s F into Washington
    where cloud cover has been more prevalent. As such, buoyancy is also
    limited. Continued heating this afternoon, however, is expected to
    increase MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg. Given the forcing, several
    storms are anticipated to form in the next 2-4 hours. Effective
    shear of 40-50 kts should favor some supercell structures.
    Boundary-layer lapse rates and dewpoint spreads will promote a risk
    for damaging winds. Cold temperatures aloft and sufficient storm
    organization will mean large hail may occur as well. The KPDT VWP
    shows a moderate amount of low-level veering. While the high-based
    nature of the storms and limited buoyancy will keep the the tornado
    threat low, a brief one is possible with stronger/persistent storms.
    Trends will be monitored for a possible watch.

    ..Wendt/Grams.. 05/15/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!62qtUJmyuxJnrffMd3wOcvwWo7rTxASwUM0KIkA7YUBLqpUCxNt2GBEDl3TRnX2wCQC8afcH5= tP7vMRBBFVE2KgUd0U$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...

    LAT...LON 44752048 45791925 46781695 46921563 45951541 44261777
    43931864 44101994 44142030 44752048=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, May 12, 2023 19:00:32
    ACUS11 KWNS 121900
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 121859=20
    TXZ000-122200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0774
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0159 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

    Areas affected...much of southwest Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 121859Z - 122200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms will develop rapidly over the next several hours,
    resulting in areas of hail and severe gusts.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite continues to show low-level moisture
    streaming westward with a slow-moving dryline, with strong heating
    removing inhibition. The 18Z MAF sounding shows ample moisture is
    now in place, with steep lapse rates aloft contributing to over 3000
    J/kg MLCAPE.=20

    As heating continues, storms should develop both along the moisture
    gradient, and, move in from the south as storms cross the Rio
    Grande. The weak flow regime will favor erratic storm motions with
    development off the dryline, however, an eventual east/southeastward
    trend is expected with time due to weak low-level southerly winds
    and propagation into the moist air mass. Steep lapse rates combined
    with ample water loading will lead to strong outflow and severe wind
    gust potential. Some of the cellular storms may produce severe hail,
    most likely early in the cycle.

    ..Jewell/Mosier.. 05/12/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-ccVxd2WbtdOyhfXFbB29M7ESa38qszQSGRLva5fcgc0wVeukXIhmyPbvPy7UsUcJqT3-uQsy= ZNoMepcxQd4sJ46kbY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 32530224 32830177 32910095 32750065 32310051 31680042
    31180046 30620065 29580149 29670199 29560253 28990290
    28820327 29050368 29780389 30310380 31000337 32140264
    32530224=20


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