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ACUS11 KWNS 151905
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151905=20
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-152030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0770
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 151905Z - 152030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to locally severe storms are possible within
a weak surface trough this afternoon. Isolated wind damage and hail
up to 1 inch may occur. No watch is expected.

DISCUSSION...Surface heating of a modestly moist (low/mid 60s F
dewpoints) airmass east of the Blue Ridge has slowly destabilized
the region. Convection within a weak surface trough has steadily
deepened throughout the day, with a stronger storm in south-central Pennsylvania. As heating continues this afternoon, a few storms may
increase in intensity. Isolated wind damage and marginally severe
hail are possible within the most intense cores. Mid-level lapse
rates are not very steep as observed by the 12Z IAD/PIT soundings.
Furthermore, the region is within a low-amplitude ridge aloft and
deep layer shear is quite weak as a result. Severe-caliber storms
should remain isolated and brief.

..Wendt/Grams.. 05/15/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9sK_0SZ2OwFv0OiWl1GSgfCAK1BbSVUnsOIyERBtlTugnxpUOZgjUtKKiNKc2NCG1o3stDuO5= mxnF47ngaA6ZjWAeVA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 41277768 42257694 42827617 42577538 40737581 38917694
38237797 38577876 38847894 41277768=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 120302
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120301=20
OKZ000-120430-

Mesoscale Discussion 0770
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1001 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023

Areas affected...Parts of central Oklahoma

Concerning...Tornado Watch 213...

Valid 120301Z - 120430Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 213 continues.

SUMMARY...The supercell tornado threat is spreading eastward across
Tornado Watch 213.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery from KTLX shows three discrete
supercells tracking east-northeastward across parts of McClain,
Cleveland, and Pottawatomie Counties tonight. Backed surface winds
and lower 70s dewpoints beneath a 30-kt low-level jet (per TLX VWP)
will support the maintenance of these supercells in the near-term --
with an associated tornado risk.=20

Despite nocturnal boundary-layer cooling, the rich low-level
moisture in place ahead of these storms could support continued
surface-based inflow with eastward extend tonight. Therefore, an
extension of Tornado Watch 213 may be warranted, and areas
downstream will be monitored.

..Weinman.. 05/12/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!72qMR29nZSuFgBdAJ5qUhrvvXsq5DFJClwPR4PktbVDkj3NW-TVuz32CS9cSpA-eIqaBiokVZ= 8T5gr_cC6BFrNx_uao$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 35639644 35389631 35069639 34969662 34909703 34889742
35069748 35339733 35549705 35629681 35639644=20


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