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ACUS11 KWNS 151330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151330=20
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-151500-
Mesoscale Discussion 0765
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0830 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022
Areas affected...Southeast KS...Central/Southern MO...Far Northeast
OK
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 216...
Valid 151330Z - 151500Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 216
continues.
SUMMARY...The ongoing line is expected to persist, with a continued
threat for strong wind gusts and hail. A downstream watch will be
needed to address the continued severe potential.
DISCUSSION...An organized convective line is currently moving
southeastward across eastern KS. The northern portion of this line
near Kansas City is more progressive, with recent storm estimates
around 50 kt. The southern portion close to Wichita is progressive,
but less so than areas farther north, with recent storm motion
estimated around 30 kt. At its current speed, the northern portion
of the line will likely reach the edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch
216 around 14Z. Recent VAD data from TWX and ICT sampled 70-80 kt
winds around 7 to 8 kft, evidence that the bow is well-organized.
The downstream air mass still has some low-level stability, but this
should begin to mix out quickly under strong heating. Recent
observation at SGF sampled 70/64. Modifying the 12Z SGF sounding
with this data expectedly yields more buoyancy and less convective
inhibition. Additionally, recent KEAX radar data showed the leading
edge of the line becoming closer to the leading outflow with time,
indicative of a gradually more favorable low-level environment. All
of these factors suggest the ongoing bow will persist downstream and
a new watch will be needed for the potential threat from strong wind
gusts and hail.
..Mosier/Grams.. 05/15/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8o2gFraTAvuJaZCmgbCCDM4Kh_PQFOsWPJxtZKjvjsAe3lBI4b-vGnlC0JiscfVkANDrvBmRY= bq1Q-f8fzr0-zH9kIw$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 36939621 37379677 37879704 38569636 39159432 38859222
38539144 37589117 37009192 36709317 36589431 36669556
36939621=20
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