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ACUS11 KWNS 152002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152002=20
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-152200-
Mesoscale Discussion 0497
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022
Areas affected...Northeast OK...Northwest/North-Central AR...Far
South MO
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20
Valid 152002Z - 152200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...The environment is becoming more favorable for the
development of supercell thunderstorms. These supercells could pose
a threat for all severe hazards, including very large hail and
tornadoes.
DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture continues to rapidly spread
northward ahead of the shortwave trough moving across central KS.
Latest surface observations sampled 60 deg F surface dewpoints as
far north of MLC in east-central OK. Mid 50s surface dewpoints
reaching as far north as Tulsa County OK. This moisture advection is
expected to persist throughout the remainder of the afternoon and
into this evening. By 00Z, the expectation is that low 60s dewpoints
will likely be near the OK/MO/AR border intersection. This low-level
moisture coupled with cool mid-level temperatures (i.e. around -16
deg C at 500mb) and associated steep mid-level lapse rates will
support at least moderate instability.=20
Recent surface analysis shows a sharp warm front from far southeast
KS southeastward across far southwest MO and north-central AR into
east-central AR. Low-level convergence along this boundary coupled
with subtle ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave and the
destabilizing air mass to foster thunderstorm initiation. Low-level
flow will likely remain southerly/southwesterly, but moderate to
strong mid- and upper-level flow will still result in vertical
profiles that support supercells with any updrafts that
persist/mature.=20
All severe hazards will be possible with these supercells, including
very large hail and tornadoes. Very large hail appears to be the
most likely risk. The tornado risk will likely be maximized near the
warm front, where low-level flow may be more backed. Additionally,
forecast storm motion of any supercells is parallel to the warm
front, suggesting that any cells that mature just south of warm
front could remain in an area of favorable low-level shear for a
notable duration. Given the potential for severe thunderstorm, a
watch will likely be needed over portions of the region.
..Mosier/Hart.. 04/15/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!s50ENhd5B48f5dTwe2o712wZNl_ShlLwKZ0ApLUx3rwLJenuYCvqGG1yHpT3qRFx-9bL34pt$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 35119440 35159519 35369569 35559597 35969617 36439589
36629556 36799506 36859464 36949337 36849256 36679205
36309155 35979148 35599160 35339205 35199255 35129362
35119440 35119440=20
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