• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0496

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, April 15, 2022 18:09:13
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    ACUS11 KWNS 151809
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 151808=20
    FLZ000-152015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0496
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0108 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022

    Areas affected...Florida Peninsula

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 151808Z - 152015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Pulse thunderstorms may be capable of sporadic instances
    of severe hail and/or damaging winds. However, the overall severe
    threat remains low, and a watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar mosaics over the past hour have shown
    thunderstorms developing along a sea breeze boundary across the
    eastern FL peninsula. Vertically integrated ice, IR imagery, and
    lightning trends all show the pulse nature of this convection, with
    individual updrafts only persisting for 15-30 minutes. This is due
    to relatively meager deep-layer shear (20-30 knots of effective bulk
    shear), and rapid undercutting from the westward-moving sea breeze
    boundary. These factors will continue to limit the duration of the
    severe threat from any one storm. However, moderate instability near
    3000 J/kg MUCAPE will continue to support the potential for strong
    updraft pulses that may support hail up to one inch and damaging
    winds. Given the limited nature of the threat, a watch is not
    expected.

    ..Moore/Bunting.. 04/15/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!v1zt-L0bWbxHR-lYTMIVRfJk_h9O5rfqjhJhaH8ZxOTNTNscKodlRdBDPd6QUKSzaLQ9kh79$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

    LAT...LON 28878213 29008152 28668084 27988046 27498032 26938021
    26158012 25608033 25838096 26688135 27948195 28618227
    28878213=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, April 06, 2023 20:44:26
    ACUS11 KWNS 062044
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 062044=20
    MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-062215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0496
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0344 PM CDT Thu Apr 06 2023

    Areas affected...portions of Virginia into eastern Maryland and
    Delaware

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 131...

    Valid 062044Z - 062215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 131
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk for hail and damaging winds continues this
    afternoon across WW131.

    DISCUSSION...Over the last couple of hours, several supercells have
    formed and matured along across southwestern portions of WW131 in
    southern VA. recent radar analysis and local storm reports show
    several of the stronger cores within these supercells have recently
    produced, or are capable of producing severe hail. The downstream,
    environment across eastern VA into DelMarVA remains favorable for
    these storms to continue, with around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 35-50
    kt of effective shear. Thus far, storms have remained relatively
    discrete favoring a greater hail threat. Recent radar and satellite
    trends suggest additional storms may form and cluster, potentially
    favoring a greater damaging wind threat with time. Storms should
    gradually shift east/northeastward with an increasing severe risk
    across portions of DelMarVa through the remainder of the afternoon
    and into the evening.

    ..Lyons.. 04/06/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7kB_446oack9r00_O3YgDi3jwKTxEtYP06rM5rGJThnv0ntyqAkJ7vTOOP4ghZ3WzjzL1U9oX= Gv43qayW0TzsZWbx3I$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

    LAT...LON 37068049 38027907 38437862 39047781 39477694 39617648
    39597613 39437583 39197553 38897521 38457498 37227585
    36967679 36677801 36657909 36697983 36738044 37068049=20


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