• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0495

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, April 14, 2022 21:40:46
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    ACUS11 KWNS 142140
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142140=20
    MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-150015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0495
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0440 PM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022

    Areas affected...Parts of northeast NC...southeast VA...southeast
    MD...and DE

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 142140Z - 150015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong to locally damaging wind gusts will be
    possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic states during the next few
    hours.

    DISCUSSION...Latest mosaic radar imagery shows a few loosely
    organized multi-cell clusters spreading east-northeastward along and immediately ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Surface
    observations ahead of the approaching convection show temperatures
    in the lower 80s and dewpoints in the lower 60s, with steep
    low-level lapse rates. This is contributing to 500-1000 J/kg of
    MLCAPE, while VWPs and RAP mesoanalysis show effective bulk shear of
    30-40 knots. While surface flow is generally veered ahead of the
    approaching cold front and convection, the combination of a
    moist/well-mixed boundary layer and sufficient deep-layer shear
    could support a few strong to locally damaging wind gusts with any
    organized multi-cell clusters during the next few hours prior to
    nocturnal boundary-layer stabilization.

    ..Weinman/Grams.. 04/14/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qcCuxiRu_eBZwWy9RuPHsN1q15VdUkniMndqQkpFLH8HnRF4exgYm7ilhDEq3imYGyiP9Hic$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...

    LAT...LON 36247563 35527606 35277714 35927861 36657883 38057761
    38717636 38797555 38317486 37007574 36247563=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, April 06, 2023 18:01:23
    ACUS11 KWNS 061801
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 061800=20
    NJZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-061930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0495
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0100 PM CDT Thu Apr 06 2023

    Areas affected...portions of Virginia...into eastern Maryland and
    Delaware

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 061800Z - 061930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to form over the higher terrain
    of VA/NC early this afternoon. Steepening low-level lapse rates and
    favorable shear may support organized clusters or a supercell
    capable of damaging winds and hail. A weather watch is being
    considered.

    DISCUSSION...As of 1755 UTC, visible satellite imagery showed
    initial cumulus towers deepening over the higher terrain of NC and
    VA. Mostly clear skies have allowed temperatures to warm into the
    low 80s F atop 60s F surface dewpoints over much of DelMarVa. The
    robust heating is supporting 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE from SPC
    mesoanalysis. As remaining inhibition weakens this afternoon,
    thunderstorms should gradually develop over the higher terrain
    before spreading east/northeastward. Area RAP soundings show
    moderate vertical shear with primarily straight hodographs
    overlapping with the favorable buoyancy. This would support
    organized storms, including short line segments/clusters, and
    perhaps an isolated splitting supercell. Afternoon mixing will
    promote steep low-level lapse rates near 8 C/km which will favor
    strong downdrafts and damaging gusts with mature storms. Hail will
    also be possible, especially with any supercell structures in deeper
    moisture farther east. Storms should develop in the next 1-2 hours
    and spread east toward the Atlantic coast through this evening.

    ..Lyons/Hart.. 04/06/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9lMfuO-G9SYxvQsfYmbtCy1gSRzN0UZ_IwTPz3CAdizEny2kP6KM4nWizRvk-J-Qp8wueJKCt= Ut5xucXhBHc4W0YNfw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

    LAT...LON 39627447 39197451 38677498 37597554 37167585 36887675
    36747751 36617815 36607989 36648054 37138030 38857847
    39087812 39437744 39767630 39837563 39767502 39627447=20


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