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ACUS11 KWNS 140437
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140437=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-140530-

Mesoscale Discussion 0493
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

Areas affected...Southeast Alabama...Far Southwest Georgia...Florida
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 129...

Valid 140437Z - 140530Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 129
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to continue for a couple
more hours but should become more isolated with time. Wind damage
will be the primary threat along the leading edge of the line. No
new weather watch is anticipated to the east of severe thunderstorm
watch 129.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery out of Mobile, Alabama shows north-to-southwest oriented line of strong thunderstorms from
south-central Alabama extending southward into far southern
Mississippi. The storms are located in a moist airmass, where
surface dewpoints are in the 65 to 70 F range, and MLCAPE is
estimated to be in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. In addition,
moderate deep-layer shear is present across much of the central Gulf
Coast region. The WSR-88D VWP in southeast Alabama has 0-6 km shear
near 40 knots with some directional shear in the lowest kilometer
above the ground. This should be enough to maintain a wind damage
threat along the leading edge of the convective line for a couple
more hours. The wind damage threat should become more isolated with
time as the line moves eastward into a less favorable environment.

..Broyles.. 04/14/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qNSl5mzMqvns8QcVoC-_C9gA3KzzHyb_G4OUKOlchQ95cddyqS322Yl6HqCm2F7Qqukw26b0$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 31788671 31128739 30758800 30418814 30178798 29988773
29908691 29878606 29668554 29588506 29738454 29958427
30748408 31548416 32158591 31788671=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 060358
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060358=20
TXZ000-060600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0493
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023

Areas affected...South Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 060358Z - 060600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Hail may accompany the most robust convection across south
Texas the next several hours; however, most of this activity should
remain sub-severe and a watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Low-level warm advection is focused across the TX
Coastal Plain late this evening as 850mb flow has strengthened a bit
along this corridor. 00z sounding from CRP exhibited substantial
MUCAPE (2500 j/KG) if lifting a parcel near 850mb, while BRO was a
bit capped near 1km. While a very weak mid-level disturbance may be
embedded within the upstream flow over northern Mexico, the primary
forcing mechanism tonight remains warm advection. Numerous
thunderstorms have evolved atop the cooler air mass from deep South
TX arcing along the Coastal Plain into northern LA. Convection will
likely continue to generate along this corridor and the most robust
updrafts may produce hail. While a few storms have likely generated
hail in excess of 1 inch at times, overall size/intensity has likely
peaked and the majority of storms should produce mostly sub-severe
hail the rest of the period.

..Darrow/Thompson.. 04/06/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6ajk4k8Ogx9b_c5MDkAjraW6khN1RzcELXjlgeuvwpi5wwqOPvxQO8dgyhQI6QolG-viDQ8Hg= OSBkwYzFbZI5C5gMA8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON 27409957 29609806 30509670 29599616 27379805 26859889
27409957=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 191708
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191707=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-191900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0493
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Areas affected...Eastern South Carolina into far southeast North
Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 191707Z - 191900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing off an outflow boundary and
surface trough may intensify enough to pose a severe hail/damaging
wind risk over the next few hours. Watch issuance is not expected
given the localized nature of the threat.

DISCUSSION...Deep convective initiation is underway across eastern
SC as thunderstorms develop along an outflow boundary from
early-morning convection. Just ahead of the outflow, deepening
cumulus is noted along a surface trough. Additional thunderstorms
are expected to develop across eastern SC and southeast NC within
the next 1-2 hours as temperatures continue to warm into the low 80s
along and downstream of these surface boundaries. Thermodynamically,
sufficient buoyancy is evidently in place to support deep updrafts;
however, more isolated convection has been short-lived, likely owing
to lingering capping and modest (6-7 C/km) mid-level lapse rates.
Longer-lived convection will likely be tied to stronger forcing
along the outflow/trough that will most likely take on a
clustered/linear storm mode. Regional VWP data and forecast
hodographs show somewhat meager elongation of the deep-layer wind
profile, but sufficient effective bulk shear (around 30-35 knots)
should support some organization of clusters. Consequently, this
activity may pose the threat for large hail (most likely between 0.5
to 1.25 inch in diameter) and damaging winds - especially by the mid
to late afternoon hours as low-level lapse rates steepen downstream
of the developing storms.

..Moore/Smith.. 04/19/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_BqD7ExaOnOSlEtP5cBTr4A8-DkC91qdc2pGNy8FmZCK56DJZ6_dgRq8dUmKiGJ8Kikg45F7e= zYonKkGgtFtLimVXpY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

LAT...LON 33108068 33298022 33818005 34338011 34598014 34908010
35197986 35357934 35327857 35287816 35067796 34757796
34397803 34007822 33797841 33557877 33157922 32917954
32687984 32598005 32538026 32628049 32908073 33108068=20


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