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ACUS11 KWNS 140238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140238=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-140415-
Mesoscale Discussion 0492
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0938 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022
Areas affected...portions of southern Louisiana and Mississippi
Concerning...Tornado Watch 126...128...
Valid 140238Z - 140415Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 126, 128 continues.
SUMMARY...Southern portions of an expansive MCS may pose a lingering
threat for strong wind gusts this evening.
DISCUSSION...As of 0240 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a large
MCS across portions of the Gulf Coast extending northward into the
Tennessee Valley. Over the last several hours, the southern most
portion of this QLCS has slowed and elongated to the southwest
across portions of southern LA and MS. As large scale forcing for
ascent lifts away to the northeast, updraft propagation will
continue to take the system slowly to the south-southeast across the
MS River Delta and Gulf Coast. The 00z LIX RAOB sampled 1700 J/kg of
MUCAPE which matches well with SPC mesoanalysis estimates of between
1500 and 2000 J/kg. Also sampled, a 40-50 kt low-level southerly jet
will continue to provide strong flow aloft available for transport
to the surface by the stronger downdrafts within the line. As the
cold pool associated with the line drifts slowly to the
south-southeast, any surges that develop within it may have the
potential to produce isolated damaging wind gusts for another few
hours. As storms begin to approach the Gulf Coast, the waning
deep-layer shear should result in a gradual decrease in storm
organization and the associated severe threat after midnight.
..Lyons.. 04/14/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vWYuY8FruIPgpF9Txui8XFiQZHV3NFbNF10wE79UETCx7kt_LTxZy0mBwjMS6nT0HznmjL_q$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 30899046 30959013 31018977 30978921 30798893 30398887
30158936 30108973 30028998 30049034 30029090 30029133
30039179 30039268 30269281 30509230 30739108 30859065
30899046=20
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