• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0492

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, April 14, 2022 02:39:05
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    ACUS11 KWNS 140238
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 140238=20
    MSZ000-LAZ000-140415-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0492
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0938 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

    Areas affected...portions of southern Louisiana and Mississippi

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 126...128...

    Valid 140238Z - 140415Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 126, 128 continues.

    SUMMARY...Southern portions of an expansive MCS may pose a lingering
    threat for strong wind gusts this evening.

    DISCUSSION...As of 0240 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a large
    MCS across portions of the Gulf Coast extending northward into the
    Tennessee Valley. Over the last several hours, the southern most
    portion of this QLCS has slowed and elongated to the southwest
    across portions of southern LA and MS. As large scale forcing for
    ascent lifts away to the northeast, updraft propagation will
    continue to take the system slowly to the south-southeast across the
    MS River Delta and Gulf Coast. The 00z LIX RAOB sampled 1700 J/kg of
    MUCAPE which matches well with SPC mesoanalysis estimates of between
    1500 and 2000 J/kg. Also sampled, a 40-50 kt low-level southerly jet
    will continue to provide strong flow aloft available for transport
    to the surface by the stronger downdrafts within the line. As the
    cold pool associated with the line drifts slowly to the
    south-southeast, any surges that develop within it may have the
    potential to produce isolated damaging wind gusts for another few
    hours. As storms begin to approach the Gulf Coast, the waning
    deep-layer shear should result in a gradual decrease in storm
    organization and the associated severe threat after midnight.

    ..Lyons.. 04/14/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vWYuY8FruIPgpF9Txui8XFiQZHV3NFbNF10wE79UETCx7kt_LTxZy0mBwjMS6nT0HznmjL_q$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

    LAT...LON 30899046 30959013 31018977 30978921 30798893 30398887
    30158936 30108973 30028998 30049034 30029090 30029133
    30039179 30039268 30269281 30509230 30739108 30859065
    30899046=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, April 05, 2023 22:47:16
    ACUS11 KWNS 052247
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 052246=20
    PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-060015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0492
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0546 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023

    Areas affected...Eastern OH...WV Panhandle...Western PA

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 128...

    Valid 052246Z - 060015Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 128
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Gusty winds will continue to be observed with convection
    this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Seasonally warm surface temperatures (low-mid 80s) have contributed to very steep low-level lapse rates across the upper OH
    Valley. Thermodynamic profiles continue to favor gusty downdrafts
    given the 30F surface temp/dew point spreads. While SBCAPE is
    somewhat marginal, strong shear and PWs in excess of 1 inch suggest
    locally strong downbursts may continue into the early evening hours
    before temperatures begin to cool. Some of this activity may spread
    into western PA before weakening.

    ..Darrow.. 04/05/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-3MhCiS7Yq1pGmZyp64vOjxx1zHovdsArHmuv2IS8j9Em3xDfOiqPPBv-LqZ-t6wcYhVrXRM7= V_BQqSNUy7C7uIeZZw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...

    LAT...LON 41188206 41637965 40587899 39877995 39798207 41188206=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, April 19, 2024 04:31:30
    ACUS11 KWNS 190431
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 190430=20
    TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-190600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0492
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1130 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

    Areas affected...North-central/northeast AR into southeast
    MO...western TN...far western KY

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 129...130...

    Valid 190430Z - 190600Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 129, 130
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A threat for isolated severe hail and wind will spread
    southeastward overnight.

    DISCUSSION...Occasionally organized convection is ongoing late
    tonight near a southeastward moving cold front from north-central AR
    into southeast MO. While the primary upper-level trough and surface
    low will become increasingly displaced northeast of the region,
    low-level south-southwesterly flow will maintain rich moisture
    along/ahead of the front, with MLCAPE of greater than 1000 J/kg
    potentially spreading from AR into western TN. Deep-layer shear will
    remain modestly favorable for organized storms and somewhat
    orthogonal to the boundary, and a transient supercell or two remains
    possible if deep convection can be sustained. With time, weakening
    ascent and increasing MLCINH with southeastward extent will
    eventually result in a diminishing threat, but isolated hail and
    damaging gusts remain possible into the early overnight hours.

    ..Dean.. 04/19/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8pemS0ZZAVm-QR4NjQqXYgixxuVh6D_7xCXk8YrAA_yRYPEXaDDhGyM1tUOIMOXZKwva0jLmU= tw0WLUbP8WOoWJ9BNE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...

    LAT...LON 35499282 36299094 36738964 36938923 36798861 36518843
    35998850 35628897 35059092 34829187 34849239 35079270
    35429278 35499282=20


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