This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1649892576-64300-10243
Content-Type: text/plain
Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

ACUS11 KWNS 132329
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132329=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-140100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0488
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0629 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

Areas affected...portions of northeast Louisiana into central
Mississippi

Concerning...Tornado Watch 123...

Valid 132329Z - 140100Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 123 continues.

SUMMARY...Ongoing QLCS across LA and western MS is expected to
continue eastward with a threat for damaging gusts and a few
tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete convection across central MS has
struggled to organize over the last several hours ahead of a
bettered defined QLCS across northeast LA. A recent uptick in
convective coverage suggests large scale forcing for ascent is
increasing which may support gradual intensification of the line as
it accelerates to the northeast.=20

The airmass east of the lead storms in central MS has seen only
modest destabilization through the day as low to mid 60s F surface
dewpoints are only just now arriving. Further moist advection may
still support some destabilization, though SPC mesoanalysis and area
RAP soundings show gradually increasing inhibition over the next few
hours. Large scale ascent along the cold front/outflow of the QLCS
will likely be the dominant forcing mechanisms for stronger updrafts
this evening. This favors continued propagation of the line eastward
toward the MS AL border. Increasing low-level shear from the
nocturnal low-level jet may still support some tornado potential
with line embedded circulations given enlarging low-level
hodographs. However, the greatest threat appears to be damaging wind
gusts owing to the strong cold pool and numerous storm interactions
associated with the QLCS.

..Lyons.. 04/13/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tI1gDVdZkmTFN9wUyH5qyOm0Im-JlxH6meE12KF-zDbVpcEFhaV8VsrlhmwcW_RODgJs8fBw$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 33239097 32899134 32229169 31689199 31369221 31129235
30969201 31029156 31209113 31579047 31858987 32008951
32048936 32508875 32988841 33348832 33788830 34008850
34078879 33968931 33629025 33429074 33239097=20



------------=_1649892576-64300-10243
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit
MIME-Version: 1.0

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1649892576-64300-10243--

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS11 KWNS 051917
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051917=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-052045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0488
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023

Areas affected...central MS into far northeast LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 051917Z - 052045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Potential is increasing for a few severe thunderstorms the
remainder of the afternoon into early evening. Damaging gusts and
large hail will be the main hazards with this activity. A severe
thunderstorm watch will likely be needed within the hour.

DISCUSSION...Convection across northeast LA into central MS has
steadily increased in intensity over the last hour, both along the
cold front and with cells developing ahead of the front in the warm
sector. Plenty of daytime heating has resulted in temperatures
warming into the mid 80s F with surface dewpoints in the mid/upper
60s F. A plume of modest to steep midlevel lapse rates exists across
the region, aiding in MLCAPE values increasing to 2000-2500 J/kg.
Strong deep-layer westerly winds and effective shear values greater
than 40 kt will support organized convection along the front and
with the cells developing ahead of the line. A mixed mode of
higher-based supercells and line segments will foster a threat for
damaging gusts and large hail over the next several hours, and a
severe thunderstorm watch is likely.

..Leitman/Hart.. 04/05/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8kVhQlYG0bMCPZDKEq4GfeYeFaoc0NjcQFBEohBdZwEEoGJ9H_CeS1w4iKbFaLEnfW8yr6j5a= RNhacFgRIlvLvX9ZuM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...SHV...

LAT...LON 32828896 32298974 31819053 31619125 31599185 31709223
32019247 32899158 33779052 33788924 33668856 33318842
32828896=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS11 KWNS 182312
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182312=20
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-190045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0488
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0612 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Areas affected...Southeast MO into southern IL...extreme southwest
IN...and western KY

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 125...

Valid 182312Z - 190045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 125
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe hail and wind, along with an
embedded tornado or two, will spread quickly eastward this evening.
Eventual downstream watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms moving across east-central/southeast MO into southwest IL has shown signs of
accelerating eastward early this evening, as new cells have merged
into the line near/north of the St. Louis area. Increasing outbound
velocities have been noted from the KLSX radar, and damaging wind
gusts of 60-75 mph may become an increasing threat through the
evening as the line of storms moves quickly eastward into a region
where modestly strong heating occurred this afternoon. Meanwhile,
moderate instability will continue to support a hail threat with any
embedded supercells. A modest increase in low-level flow/shear is
expected ahead of the line this evening into south-central/southeast
IL and southwest IN, which will support a threat of an tornado or
two, both with any embedded supercells, and also with stronger QLCS mesovortices.=20

The line of storms will likely approach the edge of WW 125 between
00-01Z, with downstream watch issuance likely into parts of
southeast IL and southwest IN.

..Dean/Guyer.. 04/18/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6BsCA0comgyTmZBdouFI2apMPmCLBHYC0PhCh0-dA1MKNRBRRBVduZ7ToiQb7LArLMau9zc3V= LhI7XoLU2SVU-Q2RVk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON 37419215 37559213 39158977 40178876 40108698 38448689
37538711 37338950 37308993 37289030 37249102 37229177
37419215=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)