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ACUS11 KWNS 132313
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132313=20
ALZ000-TNZ000-140115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0487
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0613 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

Areas affected...Northern Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 132313Z - 140115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is likely to increase across parts of
northern Alabama, where wind damage will be possible. Weather watch
issuance will likely be needed as a severe convective line
approaches from the west early this evening.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar from far northern Alabama shows a
severe convective line ongoing from western Tennessee into northern Mississippi. This line is located at the northern end of a
moderately unstable airmass where MLCAPE is estimated in the 1000 to
1500 J/kg range. The line is also located near the eastern edge of a
mid-level jet that is moving northeastward through the Ozarks. The
jet is creating strong deep-layer shear across much of the region.
The latest WSR-88D VWP near the MS-AL state line northeast of
Tupelo, MS has 0-6 km shear near 60 knots, with strong speed shear
in the lowest 2 km. Although instability decreases with eastward
extent, a severe threat could be maintained with the convective line
as it moves eastward, mainly due to the strong deep-layer shear.
Wind damage would be the primary threat with the more intense parts
of the line, but hail would also be possible.

..Broyles/Grams.. 04/13/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!q-Tp3pbkK4MQFNLy0FHDSq1IbfDNDsgjU_9fcW38AWSqTEuY94qLJFuhusyD8Z-emywsFbmA$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON 33658546 33598690 33658783 33898818 35028798 34998571
33658546=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 051802
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051802=20
NDZ000-052200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0487
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023

Areas affected...Portions of central and eastern North Dakota

Concerning...Blizzard=20

Valid 051802Z - 052200Z

SUMMARY...Localized blizzard conditions are expected across portions
of central and eastern North Dakota through the remainder of the
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...On the backside of a deep/vertically stacked
low-pressure system centered over the Upper MS Valley, surface
observations and regional VWP data show strong deep-layer
northwesterly winds overspreading North Dakota this afternoon.
During the next couple of hours, strengthening winds (around 40 kt
in the boundary layer) will support frequent gusts upwards of 35-40
mph. These gusts, combined with sufficiently cold surface
temperatures and ongoing light/moderate snow (and antecedent
snowpack) will favor localized blizzard conditions through the
remainder of the afternoon. Blowing snow model output suggests that
35+ mph gusts will support blizzard conditions in rural areas, with
localized blizzard conditions also possible in more urbanized
areas/towns with frequent gusts of 40+ mph.

..Weinman.. 04/05/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-K_jOfSFq9lWWumhkRcvPcx7rMBqEbt6ud5rK26ZbMuORLDEygYeOZDg8WUXp74pxUZF8c2On= JlvxGhhuC2VzeeW4pA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 47840097 48480124 49050125 49120034 49109896 48909848
48449827 47829799 46759751 46189732 45969767 45969832
46019971 46380016 47070054 47840097=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 182255
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182255=20
MSZ000-190030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0487
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0555 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Areas affected...Portions of central Mississippi

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 127...

Valid 182255Z - 190030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 127
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 127, especially with an established supercell over western
portions of the watch.

DISCUSSION...KDGX radar data as of 2250Z depicts a well-established right-moving supercell over west-central MS -- embedded at the
leading edge of what appears to be a remnant MCV. Over the next
couple of hours, this supercell could maintain intensity as it
continues tracking east-southeastward along the southern periphery
of an outflow boundary. East-southeasterly storm-relative inflow
will support continued surface-based streamwise vorticity, given
clockwise low-level hodograph curvature (around 150 m2/s2 0-1km SRH
per DGX VWP). Low-level shear may be modestly enhanced ahead of and
to the right of the aforementioned MCV. Locally damaging winds and
isolated hail (up to 1.5 inches) are the most likely concerns with
this storm, though a brief tornado cannot be ruled out if it remains surface-based.

..Weinman.. 04/18/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-epQqrSoUT4OeuPebU4xY7iqME2jzJ466P8M5b99SImJpHrJHT3TiXNTC_NE9mO7gpQM72XXh= DBsTzhGJKNDEE5HSts$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...

LAT...LON 32539093 32799083 32899071 32959051 32929001 32748945
32498928 32148949 32129011 32249058 32379087 32539093=20


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