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ACUS11 KWNS 132022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132022=20
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-132115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0481
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

Areas affected...much of western Kentucky...southern Illinois...and
far southwest Indiana.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 132022Z - 132115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A damaging wind and tornado threat is increasing into the
evening.

DISCUSSION...Northward moisture advection has struggled to get north
of central Tennessee, likely as a result of dry air entertainment
from the residual dry airmass, and convection to the southwest.
However, at least weak instability has developed along the Ohio
River with around 500 J/kg MLCAPE. The current environment is not
overly favorable, but it should improve as stronger forcing and
mid-level flow overspreads the region. This may result in a
northward expansion of the better developed squall line across
southeast Missouri and northeast Arkansas into the evening hours. If
this occurs, the threat for damaging winds will increase. In
addition, despite some low-level veering this afternoon, some
backing is expected into the evening which should lead to an
increasing tornado threat. Therefore, a tornado watch has been
coordinated with NWS Paducah.

..Bentley/Thompson.. 04/13/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!p7D0Fb50ouSvl5Du8_hmAAVyemNqYnKDAY-hewWmQ5hPLcqf-Ea-GSnYUAEv8HvkKvWJAebw$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON 36548942 37108894 37448825 37598795 37628729 37588691
36718768 36498814 36518922 36548942=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 051126
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051125=20
ARZ000-MOZ000-051300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0481
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 AM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023

Areas affected...far northern AR...far southern MO

Concerning...Tornado Watch 124...

Valid 051125Z - 051300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 124 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornadic supercell potential will likely focus near the
AR/MO border through 8am. A strong tornado is possible.

DISCUSSION...A pair of discrete supercells have developed over the
Ozarks ahead of a broken squall line located on a cold front. The
airmass ahead of the squall line in the warm sector is moderately
unstable (2500 J/kg MLCAPE) and features a moisture-rich low-level
airmass (upper 60s dewpoints over northern AR). Rapid storm motions
(50 kt to the northeast) indicate around 450 m2/s2 0-1km SRH is
present over northern AR per KLZK VAD data. As these supercells
continue to mature and cycle, the tornado risk will probably
increase with one or both of the supercells. A strong tornado
(EF2-EF3) is possible.

..Smith.. 04/05/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-LTjCYEfr-7A0tExbJIi-KThH0DbhL9arOdPxUEdZaJS_k-Gaqgz8yXSfgC_RPPd1-5zrtjo2= XiECT7_p8fAUZeh7io$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON 36749309 37149224 37129192 36939178 36619188 36059306
36139322 36589320 36749309=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 181709
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181708=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-181915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0481
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Areas affected...parts of central and southern Missouri into western
Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 181708Z - 181915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in thunderstorms is forecast across the
central Missouri vicinity this afternoon, spreading into western
Illinois with time. WW issuance is likely to be required in the
next 1 to 2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows a cold front
extending southwestward from a low southeast of Kansas City, across
far southeastern Kansas, and a warm front extending eastward across
central Missouri. The warm front continues to move slowly
northward, at the northern edge of a moist (60s dewpoints) boundary
layer.=20

In the wake of a well-defined, southeastward-moving gravity wave,
preceding the frontal zone by about 100 miles, clearing in the cloud
cover will continue to allow diurnal heating of the moistening
boundary layer. Resulting moderate destabilization through the
afternoon will support gradual development of storms -- initially in
proximity to both frontal zones. With time, CAMs suggest some warm-sector/pre-frontal storm development, with any such storm more
likely to exhibit supercell structures, given a background kinematic environment supportive of updraft rotation. Along with locally
damaging wind gusts and possibly a tornado or two, large hail near
or in excess of golf-ball size would be possible.

However, more widespread severe risk may preferentially evolve with upscale-growing convection near the low and trailing cold front.=20
Eventually, a broken line of storms is anticipated, accompanied by
potential for more widespread damaging winds, along with hail and
perhaps a QLCS tornado or two as it moves eastward across eastern
Missouri and eventually into Illinois.

..Goss/Mosier.. 04/18/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4QSthAV5zW5i8WOLW7aZRpxs4LSjA6UbELPx56u-U-0Xr_1obMTRoRhsdRzTYWjJ-EbfepfQX= t8oUXthSWJ6tEfd620$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON 38309410 39019288 39389094 39858891 38388828 37518923
37379383 37839429 38309410=20


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