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ACUS11 KWNS 131942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131942=20
TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-132045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0480
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

Areas affected...Northeastern Arkansas...the Missouri
Bootheel...western Tennessee...and northern Mississippi

Concerning...Tornado Watch 122...

Valid 131942Z - 132045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 122 continues.

SUMMARY...A squall line is strengthening across northeast Arkansas
and may pose an increasing damaging wind and tornado threat.

DISCUSSION...Storm evolution has been messy across most of the
moderate risk area so far today. However, recent radar imagery from
KNQA shows at least some strengthening within a squall line across
northeast Arkansas. This more favorable radar appearance coincides
with the activity moving into a more unstable airmass with MLCAPE
around 1000 to 1500 J/kg. Continued warming/moistening ahead of this
line should lead to additional strengthening through the
afternoon/evening. A 57 knot wind gust was recently observed in
Jonesboro, Arkansas, showing observational evidence of the
strengthening line.=20

The KNQA VWP shows around 50 knots of flow at 1 km with some
low-level directional shear. Therefore, QLCS tornadoes will be
possible within this line as it matures and moves east. The line
already has a LEWP appearance with multiple inflection points which
could aid in swaths of stronger wind damage and potential QLCS
tornadoes.

..Bentley.. 04/13/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tLHwcRdJ_WibBV55FPaAOzUlYFpW4yC4YBNC88TWQuVfzIIm_J8zdaoy5qYclKnKVWnkYeit$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON 35129077 35199082 35539081 35989074 36459045 36518886
36438806 35668797 35218818 35008911 35039024 35129077=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 051110
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051109=20
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-051315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0480
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0609 AM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023

Areas affected...central and northern IN...northwest OH...southern
and central portions of Lower MI

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 051109Z - 051315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A tornado watch will likely need to be considered as the
airmass continues to destabilize and storms spread into the area
from the west.

DISCUSSION...An extensive squall line located over southern WI into
northern and central IL will rapidly move eastward across the
southwest portion of the Great Lakes early this morning. A warm
front currently analyzed over far southern Lower MI will advance
northward this morning into central portions of Lower MI. South of
the warm front across northern IN/northwest OH, temperatures are in
the lower 70s and dewpoints in the lower 60s. Although lapse rates
will likely remain modest, theta-e advection into Lower MI south of
the warm front will contribute to weak buoyancy (250-1000 J/kg
SBCAPE) from parts of central IN northward into central Lower MI.=20
Enlarged low-level hodographs will be maintained across the
discussion area prior to squall line passage later this morning into
the early afternoon. As a result, the environment will support
swaths of damaging gusts and perhaps locally concentrate severe wind
potential with any bowing portions of the squall line. At least
some risk for mesovortex tornadoes will probably accompany localized
areas within the larger squall line. It remains unclear (low
probability scenario) whether a more cellular storm mode (i.e.,
supercells) will evolve ahead of the squall line. Regardless, the
risk for damaging gusts and the possibility for a couple of
tornadoes could develop and spread from west to east across adjacent
portions of IN/Lower MI/OH later this morning into the early
afternoon.

..Smith/Edwards.. 04/05/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!440C6H_OGjaIs1jtt7AK1KHMhzn7Tk7tMVzejCVCuAoUR9g7cSyiXemVQhBKUSfXifpEZ5Qwx= YNS0T7B9oujCgKu_jk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

LAT...LON 40538707 42448688 43538570 44118443 44058251 43638213
42638246 40388484 40158542 40148612 40298679 40538707=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 181431
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181431=20
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-181630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0480
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0931 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Areas affected...northern Louisiana into southern Arkansas and
western Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 181431Z - 181630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Risk for hail -- and eventually locally damaging wind
gusts -- will gradually expand across southern Arkansas and northern
Louisiana this morning, spreading into western Mississippi with
time. Marginal/localized nature of the risk in the short term
should preclude any need for short-term WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Slightly elevated convection continues to evolve across
the Arkansas/Louisiana border area this morning, within a zone of QG
ascent ahead of a subtle mid-level impulse moving across east Texas
per morning water vapor imagery. A few transiently stronger cores
are noted, aided by moderately strong flow through the middle
troposphere amidst an environment characterized by about 1000 J/kg most-unstable CAPE.

The primary short-term risk remains marginally severe hail, with a
couple of the more vigorous/long-lived updrafts. However, filtered
insolation through an existing high-cloud deck will yield enough
surface heating to allow storms to become surface-based with time.=20
As such, risk for a couple of stronger gusts will manifest as well.=20
With that said, risk should remain local/limited, given lack of a
focused low-level ascent, suggesting that WW issuance remains
unlikely through midday.

..Goss/Mosier.. 04/18/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4Db8GQm3SSZ7QGViY2PjY_-XmA65kHwFe5aBReciwcfbgWv9T0XoWtxme_rnPsBV7C6i2ofEd= fEqNYhbZZPJ0wbjlys$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 32439406 33999225 34549114 34238993 33078995 32639031
32149288 32179394 32439406=20


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