• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0473

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, April 13, 2022 15:07:59
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    ACUS11 KWNS 131507
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 131507=20
    ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-131630-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0473
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1007 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

    Areas affected...portions of central/southern AR into northeast TX
    and northwest LA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 131507Z - 131630Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe threat will continue to increase over the next
    couple hours across parts of central/southern AR into northeast TX
    and northwest LA. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible
    with storms into the afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Convection ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold
    front from southeast OK into northeast TX late continues to slowly
    increase in intensity this morning as the downstream airmass
    recovers from overnight storms. Three-hour dewpoint increases across
    the region range from 2-4 deg F. This is aiding in airmass recovery
    despite widespread cloudiness and modest boundary-layer heating,
    especially as steepening midlevel lapse rates shift east into the
    region. Effective shear greater than 40 kt will aid in increasingly
    organized convection with bowing line segments/QLCS hazards
    resulting in damaging wind potential with eastward extent. Wind
    speeds increasing quickly with height with 40-60 kt southwesterly
    flow between 850-700 mb will support not only damaging gusts, but
    QLCS mesovortex formation within the line of convection, and a few
    tornadoes also are possible. If any more discrete supercells are
    able to develop ahead of the line, an increased tornado threat also
    would accompany this activity. As the severe threat is expected to
    continue increasing over the next couple of hours, a tornado watch
    will likely be needed soon in/near the MCD area.

    ..Leitman/Thompson.. 04/13/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oc8Vw1Ug10CKf7tOeuCzrkFBSNvhqlRijsXTHw2TLK7KAuFYhLB_gdOZhUGOrLyjfblRG4Kh$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

    LAT...LON 34019443 34809375 35389318 35439290 35409262 35239216
    34729175 33979162 33169203 32499246 32159291 32079340
    32069390 32159447 32329497 32689528 33029523 33639481
    34019443=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, April 05, 2023 04:49:38
    ACUS11 KWNS 050449
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 050449=20
    IAZ000-MOZ000-050615-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0473
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1149 PM CDT Tue Apr 04 2023

    Areas affected...Eastern IA to Northern MO

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 119...

    Valid 050449Z - 050615Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 119
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Hail and wind may accompany squall line as it advances
    east into the early morning hours.

    DISCUSSION...Pre-frontal squall line is advancing steadily east
    across the mid-MS Valley. This narrow band of storms should
    propagate across the remainder of ww119 given the progressive upper
    short wave and large-scale support. While most updrafts are not
    producing severe hail, the greatest risk will be with any embedded
    supercells. Otherwise, some wind threat does exist given the
    organized nature.

    ..Darrow.. 04/05/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8BPjQC0Q6205ClmV2xj5dngXCARPkUBRSFHfG8leYjwjGvofS5BaiBIcbcIvFAzz5st4OTrHv= yXya_DgF5OG6F3uPdw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...

    LAT...LON 40379318 42269186 42039104 40399225 40379318=20


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