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ACUS11 KWNS 130930
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130930=20
NDZ000-131330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0470
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0430 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

Areas affected...central and northern ND

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 130930Z - 131330Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall rates around 1.0 to 1.5 inches per hour
(localized rates around 2 inches per hour) are forecast through the
early morning.

DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery shows a slow-moving mid-level low
over the western Dakotas with a mid-level dryslot wrapping
cyclonically through the southeast quadrant of the larger-scale
mid-level circulation. Radar mosaic shows a substantial snowfall
shield from near Bismarck northward to Minot during the past few
hours. Model guidance indicates strong frontogenesis in the 850-700
mb layer. Coupled with the strong large-scale ascent via the
mid-level low, a deep layer of forced ascent within a saturated
column will continue to yield heavy snowfall rates for the next
several hours from near I-94 in central ND northward to the 48th
parallel. Snowfall rates 1.0-1.5 inches per hour will likely occur
with locally heavier bursts possible.

..Smith.. 04/13/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!saT-5oPwMZ1YWxQhg7N3pGW7W4IpcEyZ-rOjAe-jaF2UntBd2JMKziqSvoHyBWGqr_Zun8Xi$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 46960121 47420164 48440188 48960166 49019903 48509936
48050007 47470032 47050043 46960121=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 050211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050210=20
IAZ000-050315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0470
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0910 PM CDT Tue Apr 04 2023

Areas affected...Central/Eastern Iowa

Concerning...Tornado Watch 115...

Valid 050210Z - 050315Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 115 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat will continue beyond watch expiration. New
Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued by 03z.

DISCUSSION...Warm-advection thunderstorms have generally lifted
north of ww115 as the warm front advances north ahead of the
approaching short wave. Primary concern for convection the next
several hours will be along the advancing cold front where the
convective mode is becoming linear dominant. While isolated
supercells will continue along the line, and perhaps ahead of the
evolving squall line, it appears the main risks will now be
hail/wind. New ww will likely be issued by 03z (before expiration)
to account for this threat.

..Darrow.. 04/05/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_8KlkAJ1fCheMiLMiLfOrRtB8GZ9L11yQPT_PsN0QHR6nmEIujDSVYYcvPu1wVdcQjWEsPPJQ= vb9k6q6Zh1-sP6hOPc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...

LAT...LON 40679454 42279315 42149080 40759191 40679454=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 171526
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171525=20
MIZ000-INZ000-171700-

Mesoscale Discussion 0470
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Areas affected...portions of Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 171525Z - 171700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase over the next
couple of hours. Damaging gusts and hail will be the main hazards
with storms through the afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch will
likely be need by 16-17z/12-1pm EDT.

DISCUSSION...Convection developing near Lake Michigan will shift
northeast and intensify over the next couple of hours. Surface
dewpoints have increased into the upper 50s to low 60s F as a warm
front continues to lift north across southern Lower Michigan.
Heating of this moistening airmass has aided in weak destabilization
late this morning, with around 500 J/kg MLCAPE noted in 15z
mesoanalysis. Effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt should
allow for organized cells or small line segments. Damaging gusts to
65 mph and hail to 1.5 inches in diameter will be possible with this
activity through the afternoon. Forecast hodographs and current
region VWP data indicated modestly enlarged and curved low-level
hodographs are present. However, instability will remain limited.
While a tornado can not be entirely ruled out, the prevailing risk
potential should remain confined to damaging gusts and hail.=20

Severe potential will increase from south to northeast with time
over the next few hours, and severe thunderstorm watch will likely
be needed for portions of the MCD area.

..Leitman/Mosier.. 04/17/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_mmwClOT1SJ-0ezVI3O3Ggsd-OhFwmShV4mxXkUqlw1qxyBDl8dLgRgsTMusq1vAWjunGGrte= 0BB0JlGnQiQxlEptKs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON 43678462 43848399 43908303 43278264 42828261 42248307
41838345 41738369 41768512 41788559 42068569 43398518
43578478 43678462=20


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